I Wonder Why This Number Is Rising So...
Politics1 min ago
Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease?
164 Answers
An interesting view from Peter Hitchens here. Has he got a point?
Answers
When the pubs were ordered to close on March 20th and the other lockdown measures followed I posted somewhere on here that I doubt that it would do any good. I based my doubts on the fact that similar (if not harsher) measures had failed to halt the rise in the number of new cases in Italy (who were said to be about two weeks ahead of the UK with the crisis). Well we’re...
15:17 Sun 12th Apr 2020
‘ if nothing was done here, why didn’t they do so in Sweden, where relatively nothing was done? ’
Because their population density is about one fifth of ours.
From the reports I’ve read, many Swede’s have taken it upon themselves to stay at home a lot more and there was advice that it was best practise:
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However, this is a very interesting article which backs up your thoughts, NJ
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Because their population density is about one fifth of ours.
From the reports I’ve read, many Swede’s have taken it upon themselves to stay at home a lot more and there was advice that it was best practise:
https:/
However, this is a very interesting article which backs up your thoughts, NJ
https:/
It's not quite a like-for-like comparison, as you've admitted. Sweden is less densely populated than the UK, for example. In the last couple of days, too, it seems that they are having a pause in case/death reports, making it harder to compare. There is then the small matter that their case growth curve looks not that far off exponential to me, albeit perhaps at a slower growth rate. I haven't done the analysis so I'd have to check, at the moment it's just a "by eye" judgement, which isn't really that reliable, but still I'm seeing something not inconsistent with exponential growth through to before Easter.
And, in any case, the Sweden PM has recently admitted that not enough has been done there to mitigate the effects of Covid, so it's not exactly brilliant for your case in that regard either.
And, in any case, the Sweden PM has recently admitted that not enough has been done there to mitigate the effects of Covid, so it's not exactly brilliant for your case in that regard either.
Meanwhile, the Government has suggested that it's beginning to see the effects of the Lockdown. "Positive signs" that the UK is getting this under control, and "Numbers of new cases and patients in hospital are levelling off", even if this week is sadly going to see several thousand new deaths announced.
> is Ellipsis saying that before Covid New York averaged 25 deaths a week
No, in the link I gave, about New York resorting to mass graves, it was talking about the number of burials at one site increasing from 25 a week to 24 a day. Here's the link again:
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If the typical daily deaths in the UK in years gone by is 1600, the really interesting stat would be "What are the daily deaths now, under lockdown?" Giving we are mostly living safer lives, (working less, travelling less, etc.) you would expect it to go down a bit were it not for Covid-19. The amount it has gone up would be a better indication of the number of deaths caused "by" Covid-19, regardless of "of" or "with", under our lockdown conditions and allowing for lag etc.
New York is an example of how much deaths increase above the typical when Covid-19 is left unchecked for too long. Digging mass graves is definitely unusual.
No, in the link I gave, about New York resorting to mass graves, it was talking about the number of burials at one site increasing from 25 a week to 24 a day. Here's the link again:
https:/
If the typical daily deaths in the UK in years gone by is 1600, the really interesting stat would be "What are the daily deaths now, under lockdown?" Giving we are mostly living safer lives, (working less, travelling less, etc.) you would expect it to go down a bit were it not for Covid-19. The amount it has gone up would be a better indication of the number of deaths caused "by" Covid-19, regardless of "of" or "with", under our lockdown conditions and allowing for lag etc.
New York is an example of how much deaths increase above the typical when Covid-19 is left unchecked for too long. Digging mass graves is definitely unusual.
Jim has just posted the stat on a different thread:
jim360> Meanwhile. the ONS figures for provisional total deaths, week ending April 3rd, were released, and it doesn't make for pretty reading. Background deaths a shade over 10,000/week at this time of year. Actual deaths, 16,000.
So, deaths have gone up hugely over the norm. With or of, matters not - it's almost subjective - whereas the number of deaths is objective.
jim360> Meanwhile. the ONS figures for provisional total deaths, week ending April 3rd, were released, and it doesn't make for pretty reading. Background deaths a shade over 10,000/week at this time of year. Actual deaths, 16,000.
So, deaths have gone up hugely over the norm. With or of, matters not - it's almost subjective - whereas the number of deaths is objective.
Yes, we have to keep a perspective on how NY’s poor were buried pre-corona.
‘ And then, perhaps most eerily present, there is Hart Island, the small, barren plot of land viewable from City Island in the Bronx. Here, Riker’s Island inmates are paid 50 cents an hour to bury the city’s poor and unclaimed dead in trenches, not plots’
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‘ And then, perhaps most eerily present, there is Hart Island, the small, barren plot of land viewable from City Island in the Bronx. Here, Riker’s Island inmates are paid 50 cents an hour to bury the city’s poor and unclaimed dead in trenches, not plots’
https:/
Mass graves are also being dug at a London cemetery for Muslim victims.
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I'm still trying to make sense of the ONS data. As best I can figure out, there could be as many as 2,200 more deaths, half as many again, related to Covid-19 in the run-up to 3rd April than were registered in the current count. I'll need to wait to next week to see if there's a further revision, but the simple fact is that the death rate has exploded in the last couple of weeks, that a good deal of this is related to Covid-19, and the picture painted is clearly horrific.
