ChatterBank0 min ago
Uk Heads The Table For The Most Deaths In Europe?
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Still dreadful even *with* the size of its population, when you consider that there is more to come. But, yes. It is important to recognise that Spain and Italy may have undercounted deaths, so we may be ahead only due to counting techniques. What is undeniable, though, is that the death toll in the UK is very high, and it is legitimate to wonder if there were...
18:02 Tue 05th May 2020
What matters when someone becomes ill is whether he/she recovers or dies - death is a failure while recovery is a successful outcome. When making comparisons between countries' performance in dealing with the pandemic I cannot understand why it should matter whether a person who died from Covid 19 was old or young, lived in a crowded block of flats or on a remote farm - it is a death as a result of the disease. If a Covid 19 death is not recorded then one must ask why. It is being suggested Covid 19 deaths outside hospitals may not yet have been recorded, "we don't know if that is the case" - has nobody thought of asking both in the UK and in Italy whether that may/could be the case ? In particular, if I had access to the right authorities I would ask whether samples were taken from all those who died but were not tested at the time due to overload, insufficient testing capacity, disorganisation/ineptitude/incompetence, or whatever - what is the answer (has anyone asked - in Italy and the UK or even elsewhere) ? Instead, approximating the Covid 19 death rate empirically through "excess deaths" is being suggested, talk about desperation in chaos - if the excess death rate is actually positive, what do you then say: Covid 19 extended life expectancy (there seems to be one example of such a circumstance). It looks to me as if there are a lot of attempts going around in order to establish credible excuses or at least muddy the waters.
I disagree Karl about excess deaths. Excess Mortality is what really matters and it may be some months before we can really see the full picture. Given the counting differences between nations on Covid we need to look at Excess Mortality. Underlying rates are pretty consistent. Not only does it pick up deaths from/with Covid, it picks up indirect deaths- eg suicides, failure to get heart problems dealt with, etc. The only thing that would mess it up is if we get a concurrent epidemic of say flu
We know Excess Mortality won't be negative- it seems to be running at well over 60%.
I suppose it could in theory have been negative- that could happen if lockdown stops Covid and also, because it keeps us all in cotton wool and taking more care, means a big fall in car accidents, murders, accidents at work, fall in alcohol related deaths, healthier eating. That would still be the Covid effect. Won't happen though
I suppose it could in theory have been negative- that could happen if lockdown stops Covid and also, because it keeps us all in cotton wool and taking more care, means a big fall in car accidents, murders, accidents at work, fall in alcohol related deaths, healthier eating. That would still be the Covid effect. Won't happen though
we still don't really know much about Covid. Things I've read today include why do BAME people die in such great numbers, but also why do twins die - is there a genetic element? And that's quite apart from whether we'll find a vaccine or a cure. We'll pull out of this one eventually but we'll still be at the mercy of another one if we can't figure out what happened, why it happened and what we should do to prepare for it.
Those committing suicide due to anxiety, depression, financial complications, etc., etc. brought on by Covid 19 complications - death due to Covid 19 ? With respect ff, this is not something that should dictate running totals at this stage or at any time but there may be a place for that approach once a reliable count has been arrived at in order to form a possible margin and/or appreciation of the disaster, which would nevertheless be nothing more than a "gut feeling" type of observation. If the excess approach is to be the decider then that is an open admission that the testing, recording and reporting process is poor/unreliable, failing to reveal the truth. As I said, I know of at least one country where the death rate (including Covid 19 deaths) in the first three months of this year (yes, there are countries who actually are that efficient in their record keeping, even having April ready as well) is actually lower than the recent average - how does mulling that over provide a more accurate/realistic understanding of the Covid 19 losses/death rate ? I note officialdom in the UK is claiming the Uk is better at counting than most/all other countries - goes without saying, foreign records/reports are consequently not worth discussing.
I'm saddened, but not exactly surprised. We have a tightly squashed-together population and I think (not sure, but someone will come up with the exact figures) that we shunt our aged population into homes where they are sitting ducks. There is also a question or 2 about figures from other countries, as has been mentioned. Too soon to start tearing hair out. Can I give an exemplar on country size? France has about the same population as us, but is 2 and 1/2 times the geographical size. Proximity=contact=contamination=more deaths. Same where the death rates are highest in the UK. One of those things, I'm afraid - and a great argument for curtailing immigration as well as improving our cities.
gromit: "I posted on it and was lambasted as anti-British. " - you are anti British, if this was any foreign country you'd be explaining away the figures somehow. It's quite clear that you can interpret the figures to suit and you do. It's obvious that we are not the worst in Europe but hey ho you can overlook the proportional figures right gromit? that gives you another stick to beat us with.
Karl. All countries record deaths differently. Even within a country different doctors may record differently. Even the wonderful EU didn't manage to standardise that. And some countries in Europe report differently or have very different timescales for reporting, And we are pretty sure some countries massage the figures whilst others don't even have a proper system and bodies are just left.
But whatever measure is used ultimately the UK will not come out of this particularly well- partly through our population density, underlying health issues, our good NHS (pre Covid we kept alive people who'd have died in some countries), age profile., care home systems, our being a global hub so lots flew in during Jan/Feb, our proportion of BAME profile- but also because our lockdown /social distancing started too late and our testing was not at the level needed.
But whatever measure is used ultimately the UK will not come out of this particularly well- partly through our population density, underlying health issues, our good NHS (pre Covid we kept alive people who'd have died in some countries), age profile., care home systems, our being a global hub so lots flew in during Jan/Feb, our proportion of BAME profile- but also because our lockdown /social distancing started too late and our testing was not at the level needed.
I can't speak for Gromit, but it really is sickening that legitimate criticism can be so easily dismissed as "anti-British". At least 30,000 people have died either directly or indirectly because of an illness, and while some of this was inevitable, pointing to the high death toll here, pointing to the lower-than-ideal testing rate, pointing to the later-than-necessary lockdown -- all of these are reasonable questions to ask. Could the UK have done better? If not, why not? And, here is the point: what should we do differently next time? Criticism in this manner is constructive and it is a mistake to confuse it with anti-Britishness.
The excess death measure will measure one thing: Any effects of tardy and/or poor means of dealing with the emergency versus prompt and/or effective ways (all valid for the purposes of analysis/inquest/etc.), it will not indicate anything about deaths from the disease itself. It is almost certainly clutching at straws due to discomfort that prompts people to refuse to accept European figures at face value when the whole situation in the same countries is still in strong flow. I would suggest the correct thing to do is to simply take a hard look and acknowledge the indications, then examine/scrutinise the statistics once things are closer to the end. Some/several of the countries involved have better health services than the UK and I have not seen any suggestion that this has worked against the UK but maybe that should also be looked into when the time comes.
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