What If There’s A Spike After The Demos Two Weeks Ago

[Bobbisox1]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53106673

[retrocop]

We shall all scweem until we are sick, 'All lives matter'

[jim360]

The demos themselves will almost certainly be not the main contributing factor, given that many shops have now opened, many people are returning to work, schools are partially re-opened, people are now allowed to travel across the country, public transport use has increased slightly...

Picking up on any one factor is probably a mistake. I don't doubt that the protests will play a part in any future "second wave", but there are so many other contributing factors.

At the moment, though, daily new cases appear to be holding steady.

[Bobbisox1]

It normally takes 14 days to manifest itself ( tomorrow) let’s hope this is not a premature move

[AuntPollyGrey]

New cases are holding steady as it can take up to 21 days from exposure to first symptoms. Also no one actually knows how many new cases there are a day as only a fraction of the population gets tested, and many are probably asymptomatic, who knows.

[fiction-factory]

I hope you're right jim, but for most of those social distancing was maintained (apart from scrum outside Nike store) whereas the protestors and police were standing side by side and face to face with each other. I think a fair number of the younger protestors had been ignoring social distancing anyway beforehand so I don't think there will be a noticeable spike that can be linked directly to this

[Bobbisox1]

Me too FF

[jim360]

Indeed, we need to keep a careful eye on new cases in the next few weeks. However, there was a general easing at the beginning of June, and it seems that so far the effect has only been to stop the decline rather than lead to an increase in cases/day. So I'm feeling a little more optimistic that the timing of easing measures has been OK so far.

[naomi24]

Hmmmm ...... Shops etc., are maintaining social distancing so the likelihood is that people using them are safe. I didn't see much social distancing going on with the demonstrations.

[jim360]

"Also no one actually knows how many new cases there are a day as only a fraction of the population gets tested..."

This is true, but the ONS estimates based on (what I assume to be) a random sample of households suggests that the "true" figure of new cases per day, as of last week at least, is something in the region of 3,000 -- 5,000. Rough rule of thumb at the moment therefore seems to be that you should multiply the daily announced cases by 4 to get the "true" figure.

[Peter Pedant]

// We shall all scweem until we are sick, 'All lives matter'//
I think that should be
We shall all thcweem until we are thick, 'All liveth matter'

the time for infection is 5 d plus or minus one and so it should have occurred (Durdle Door) and another one for the BLM demos

and none which means the fellas who said that open air transmission was a non starter were correct

so.... if you are going to the pub - use the beer garden

[retrocop]

//I didn't see much social distancing going on with the demonstrations.//

Must of been quite cosy with all those protestors taking the trains home at Waterloo. :-(

[jim360]

Data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata

The 95% confidence interval is, unsurprisingly, quite high, so it's better to take this as a decent order of magnitude estimate rather than an exact figure -- ie, we can say with a high degree confidence that the number of new daily infections in the community is only a four-figure number, as opposed to a five-figure number in April.

[woofgang]

Well we seem to have got away with the Durdle Door weekend

[Bobbisox1]

I’ve been dying to ask, what’s the Durdle door?

[elliemay1]

https://jurassiccoast.org/visit/attractions/durdle-door/

[dannyk13]

Try again:-
https://jurassiccoast.org/visit/attractions/durdle-door/

[Bobbisox1]

Thanks Danny/ Ellie

[Blades_fan]

Durdle Door is a Dorset coastal landmark.

[MargoTester]

https://www.visit-dorset.com/things-to-do/durdle-door-p1262763