ChatterBank2 mins ago
Why Aren't We Filling Up The Nightingale Hospitals With All The Covid Cases?
If some regional hospitals are filling up with covid cases, why aren't they being shifted to the nightingale hospitals, I thought that's what they were there for? Or does the filling up of local hospitals make better dramatic headlines on the BBC for which they can then send a film crew around the hospital to show how we are all going to die a horrible death which hopefully will then keeps the natives in check?
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// It wouldn't surprise me if we're all walking round with this virus inside us. Akin to Typhoid Mary.//
Hi clar
yes it wd surprise me -- a lot
tonsil testing shd pick up carriers
Typhoid Mary was a carrier who KNEW she was a carrier
2) declined to isolate
3) and MIGHT have infected some of the victims ( children ) intentionally ( who later died) or not
she was later intentionally marooned on Roosevelt Island (*) and led such a life of dirt that people wondered later if she intentionally caused outbreaks. Her life of isolation was such that she wanted to 'escape' because outside she had a better life and was paid more.
Typhoid M is NOT a sympathetic character or victim in todays interpretation
(*) where dat den etc etc now uninhabited BUT her house there is still there
Hi clar
yes it wd surprise me -- a lot
tonsil testing shd pick up carriers
Typhoid Mary was a carrier who KNEW she was a carrier
2) declined to isolate
3) and MIGHT have infected some of the victims ( children ) intentionally ( who later died) or not
she was later intentionally marooned on Roosevelt Island (*) and led such a life of dirt that people wondered later if she intentionally caused outbreaks. Her life of isolation was such that she wanted to 'escape' because outside she had a better life and was paid more.
Typhoid M is NOT a sympathetic character or victim in todays interpretation
(*) where dat den etc etc now uninhabited BUT her house there is still there
Your spouting rubbish again youngmadog when you go on about MSM and the figures cos it realy is a huge killer, (ask relatives of the 200000 dead in USA) but your right that the hopefully wont be needed as hospital admissions hopefully wont reach the levels of the Spring. There really there just as a back up in case of a real surge and am sure many would of criticised them if they hadnt had a back up facility like this
Come on, ymb -- we've had a few months when Covid was lying in the shadows, and that was great while it lasted, but you must see that Covid death figures and hospitalisations are rising again, and you must therefore also see that a death toll comparable to May/June is still possible. Besides, focusing on deaths is too narrow, when survivors of the disease are often reporting severe long-term conditions.
About ten days ago I suggested a lower bound of 5,000 new Covid-19 deaths by Christmas. Based on the last week of data, I'd have to raise that lower bound to 10,000.
About ten days ago I suggested a lower bound of 5,000 new Covid-19 deaths by Christmas. Based on the last week of data, I'd have to raise that lower bound to 10,000.
It is clear that the cases/deaths ratio is very different between wave 1 and wave 2.
It may be that in the second wave the deaths are delayed, and will rise sharply in the coming months. But we are not seeing that now
10th April Peak of first wave
Cases 7860
Deaths 1146
21st October second wave
Cases 26,684
Deaths 191
Two vastly different outcomes.
It may be that in the second wave the deaths are delayed, and will rise sharply in the coming months. But we are not seeing that now
10th April Peak of first wave
Cases 7860
Deaths 1146
21st October second wave
Cases 26,684
Deaths 191
Two vastly different outcomes.
the structure of the second wave is radically different from the first.
the mortality was 15% and is much lower now and this has generated much discussion ( blah blah that is!)
not many olds this time
different treatment - use of steroids affect positively 30% of severe cases.
oh whilst I am at it
if there a million cases in the Land of the Free
and 200 000 deaths
that is a case fatality ratio of 20% innit?
or am I wrong?
the mortality was 15% and is much lower now and this has generated much discussion ( blah blah that is!)
not many olds this time
different treatment - use of steroids affect positively 30% of severe cases.
oh whilst I am at it
if there a million cases in the Land of the Free
and 200 000 deaths
that is a case fatality ratio of 20% innit?
or am I wrong?
// It is clear that the cases/deaths ratio is very different between wave 1 and wave 2.//
sozza sunk
you put it better
and YMF is still stuck in denial - 45 000 dead arent dead or if they are it was from flu and if wasnt they arent dead - and the CIA should be blamed
that is what I like about AB ! pure logic !
sozza sunk
you put it better
and YMF is still stuck in denial - 45 000 dead arent dead or if they are it was from flu and if wasnt they arent dead - and the CIA should be blamed
that is what I like about AB ! pure logic !
Nightingale hospitals were for step down and recovering patients, they would be staffed with the doctors and nurses brought back from retirement and military personnel. Not suitable for infection control cases as the are large open spaces. Cost is also a factor. You can't ask the retired staff to come back indefinitely because from experience in hospital bed management I know once those beds have been open a few months they will be relied on and cases will build up accordingly.
jim360
We were probably missing a lot of unrecorded cases in the first wave because we weren’t testing enough people.
But the number of deaths was fairly accurate.
The number of deaths are still being accurately recorded, and (presently) are a 10th of what they were in April. That might change in the next month, or it might not. No one knows yet.
We were probably missing a lot of unrecorded cases in the first wave because we weren’t testing enough people.
But the number of deaths was fairly accurate.
The number of deaths are still being accurately recorded, and (presently) are a 10th of what they were in April. That might change in the next month, or it might not. No one knows yet.
Hmm, seems my answer got lost for some reason, probably forgot the thing about angle brackets.
Anyway, the point I was making is that there was much less testing in March/April, so it's likely that tens of thousands of cases were being missed, making comparisons of the Case Fatality Rate between April and October essentially meaningless. On the plus side, medical care for Covid-19 has been improving, so there's good reason I think to believe that even if cases get as high as they were in April, the death toll will still be lower.
Anyway, the point I was making is that there was much less testing in March/April, so it's likely that tens of thousands of cases were being missed, making comparisons of the Case Fatality Rate between April and October essentially meaningless. On the plus side, medical care for Covid-19 has been improving, so there's good reason I think to believe that even if cases get as high as they were in April, the death toll will still be lower.
// The problem with that analysis is that it doesn't take into account the lower rates of testing. When we were reporting//
you re the fella wivva a degree in stats arent you?
anyway ( or BUT ) with limited testing the base prevalence rate was 0.6% and with much more testing it is not much more 0.6% and so the different testing environments may not be relevant in any solution.
if you had all three of the Big Three signs ( temp cough and anosmia ) the chance of testing pos and having covid was still only 30%
which means that it was crap as a filter
and yes the point about covid and something new
I think is just
there has to be a 'new' point like - we have a dog that can smell covid - or we have a covid knitting circle doing covid tea cosies all with stickie things looking like spikes
like a god we have a hozzie and there is no one there
and so my gaaaard they must be dropping in the streets or something
came badly unstuck at the Christie cancer hospital this week
we arent treating anyone even if they come in
and they are all DDDDDYYYYYYYIIIIINNNNGg!
No actually - they arent ( I am at the Christie)
you re the fella wivva a degree in stats arent you?
anyway ( or BUT ) with limited testing the base prevalence rate was 0.6% and with much more testing it is not much more 0.6% and so the different testing environments may not be relevant in any solution.
if you had all three of the Big Three signs ( temp cough and anosmia ) the chance of testing pos and having covid was still only 30%
which means that it was crap as a filter
and yes the point about covid and something new
I think is just
there has to be a 'new' point like - we have a dog that can smell covid - or we have a covid knitting circle doing covid tea cosies all with stickie things looking like spikes
like a god we have a hozzie and there is no one there
and so my gaaaard they must be dropping in the streets or something
came badly unstuck at the Christie cancer hospital this week
we arent treating anyone even if they come in
and they are all DDDDDYYYYYYYIIIIINNNNGg!
No actually - they arent ( I am at the Christie)
-- answer removed --
I think we have to look it the demographics, you could identify a million new cases but if they were all in the under 40s we would have a very low death rate. Test and identify a thousand vulnerable individuals you will have a higher death rate. We are mostly seeing cases in the younger age groups, as they go home and infect granny and grandad deaths will start to climb.
I agree improved treatment strategies are having a massive input into survival rates, they know what they are doing now, no one had a clue in the early days, that could only treat based on similar conditions.
I agree improved treatment strategies are having a massive input into survival rates, they know what they are doing now, no one had a clue in the early days, that could only treat based on similar conditions.
// so it's likely that tens of thousands of cases were being missed,//
yeah OK and so they arent now so the denominator is bigger making the case fatality ratio less .....
but you could control for that - by looking at the mortality of admissions to hospital
[I am not being contrary just for the sake(*)
I think the point is relevant - and quite a lot of the stat points are missed by non-maff doctors anyway]
(*) o god there is some awful crap on AM this am - have you missed the " Bishop abused the boy but didnt bring god into it" ? He did by the way - this is a little atoll of civility
yeah OK and so they arent now so the denominator is bigger making the case fatality ratio less .....
but you could control for that - by looking at the mortality of admissions to hospital
[I am not being contrary just for the sake(*)
I think the point is relevant - and quite a lot of the stat points are missed by non-maff doctors anyway]
(*) o god there is some awful crap on AM this am - have you missed the " Bishop abused the boy but didnt bring god into it" ? He did by the way - this is a little atoll of civility
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