What Happened To Flu?

[naomi24]

We regularly hear at this time of year that the NHS is overwhelmed with cases of flu, but this year I've heard no mention of it. The only figures we get are those related to Coronavirus. Has flu disappeared - or are those figures being lumped in with the daily death toll from Covid?

[andy-hughes]

Mamya - // The debate about 'with or from' can be sorted out later, it's far more important to deal with what's happening rather than quibble about numbers. //

I am not 'quibbling about numbers', I am saying that it is in everyone's interest that the fatality causes are calculated and reported accurately, otherwise, why bother to report them at all, we can simply pluck a number out of the air.

[jno]

I believe the number of deaths attributed to Covid is distorted by attributing any death solely to Covid

well, that's what I'm asking (and what woofgang was asking earlier): if those 65,000 excess deaths shouldn't be attributed to Covid, what should they be attributed to? And why are there 65,000 more than usual? That excess needs explaining.

[sanmac]

I would think that to establish the actual, or proximate, cause of death an autopsy has to be performed. Is it even feasible to think that every patient who dies is a hospital or nursing home in the UK is autopsied?

[Peter Pedant]

post mortems - around 5%
I wd rate that as "very low"

very few are done on covid pts as they are looked on as so contagious

the number of pms is peanuts compared to Virchow ( German (1850) who did 46 000 in his life ( 50 years at it, 1000 a year or 4 a day).

[Peter Pedant]

I cant bear to look
are we really still at flu = covid yeah! stage, still?

[sanmac]

Peter, I remember as a kid reading "Sir Bernard Spilsbuy: His Life and Cases", and was really fascinated with it. It turns out, in retrospect obviously, that some of his court testimonies were blatantly biased in favor of the prosecution.

[Peter Pedant]

as Fauci said about the american numbers

"they are dead. there is no doubt about that. you can go out and look at them. we're not making it up. The only thing is saying what it is from"

and I think he said - "and you can test for it. it is not flu. it doesnt come out as flu"
Fauci is more trusted than Trump um which isnt really sayng much now

[andy-hughes]

sanmac - // I would think that to establish the actual, or proximate, cause of death an autopsy has to be performed. Is it even feasible to think that every patient who dies is a hospital or nursing home in the UK is autopsied? //

I don't believe that is the case - it is surely possible to determine a cause of death without an autopsy, otherwise how do death certificates get signed?

[bobbinwales]

Am not sure that the doctors determine the exact cause of death tho andy- sometimes its obvious, sometimes its a combination of things and the doctor puts his assessment of the main cause or causes. Autopsies might give diffrent results sometimes

[woofgang]

It depends on what the cause of death was and its always a bit of a black art.... Most causes of death are the opinion of the certifying medic. It also depends on whether you mean what brought the person to the point where life was going to end and what actually killed them...I mean man falls under bus....yes the bus squished him but would he have fallen under the bus if he hadn't been blind drunk and would he have been blind drunk if his wife hadn't just kicked him out?
Under normal circs actual detailed reasons aren't so important in many (?the majority) of cases. Autopsies can be distressing to those who are left and are expensive and time consuming so provided that there is a reasonable reason, they are not usually seen as needful.
From what I have read the people who have died of covid, while possible frail and unwell with other things (not always) have had serious and evident covid symptoms.....but yes in order to stand a chance of saying definitively what someone died of, some kind of autopsy is essential.

[andy-hughes]

Woof, I take your point, but I still maintain that attributing deaths to Covid purely on the arbitrary factor of a diagnosis within twenty-eight days offers significantly weighted statistics which are inaccurate.

[jim360]

The 28-day figure is not 100% accurate, no -- but it is clear as day that it's overwhelmingly tracking the correct number of deaths. A previous measure, that counted all deaths among all those who have ever tested positive, was discarded for reasons that became obvious over the Summer. Have a look at the graphs, though, in particular comparing the positive cases curve with the tests curve.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Visually, there is a striking correlation, especially once the handicap of low testing rates was overcome after the first wave -- the correlation is even more significant once you take into account the approximate two-to-three week gap between initial infection and death -- and that should be enough, frankly, to allay any fears that the scale of Covid is being exaggerated. When also the clear increase over the average total death toll is taken into account, there can be neither any doubt that Covid is causing a significant number of deaths, nor any doubt that the statistics provided are substantially accurate. Maybe a small percentage of recorded Covid deaths were after all due to entirely unrelated factors, but it is not nearly enough to change the picture. It's wholly misleading, therefore, to talk about "significantly weighted statistics which are inaccurate" in this context.

[Peter Pedant]

/// I mean man falls under bus....yes the bus squished him but would he have fallen//
erm
he wouldnt really get a DC wivvart an inquest

In short people think ( I have no idea why) causes of death on a death cert are hallowed words from God and immutable.
They arent

Have we really said "covid = flu" on this thread?
whilst I am all in favour of free speech
if we have
then the thread needs a health warning - this thread may seriously damage your health

no of deaths in 2020 15% higher - news today

[bobbinwales]

Yes, something like 87000 deaths in 2020 above the average for last 5 years, the highest excess date rate since the war and that includes Asian flue in late 1950s. That figure seems pretty much in line with the covid deaths figure of those dying within 28 days of a covid test.

[Peter Pedant]

// but I still maintain that attributing deaths to Covid //

erm the bulletins I have heard rather preciously intone
"and with a positive covid test within 28 d" - because of the hairspitting over the last year

I think you can estimate the accuracy of the information ( says he to a hopelessly innumerate readership) if 15% of the DCs mention covid

because in that case 15% of the deaths are excess and 15% of the death WOULD be due to covid ( which we agree is causing the excess number)

Or is the excess death calculation so abstract to the standard ABer that all they can squawk is " gobbeldegook?"

oh by the way one of the proofs that flu does NOT = covid
is that vaccination of one does not protect from the pther
( kinda obvious or else we wd all have had flu vacc and there wd be no covid)

[Peter Pedant]

yes thx Bobbib
I had noticed the number roughly added up

[woofgang]

yeah ok PP bad example, but you get my drift?

[Peter Pedant]

// as a kid reading "Sir Bernard Spilsbuy: His Life and Cases", //

my dear late mama's pathology lecturer. Gassed himself in the lab on coal gas in the end

Belle ( Dr Crippens wife that is!) had the good grace to leave only a patch of skin in the cellar - and it was from her neck and had a ligature mark on it !

I always thought that was odd - and latterly others have as well.

"Belle" was probably a botched abortion crippen um got rid of

[Peter Pedant]

yes valid point
DCs are a terrible source of what people die from
and actually arent designed to supply that info
a post mortem is .....