Van Tam Says Bumpy Autumn Expected

[Stickybottle]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58008618
Sounds a bit gloomy but hopefully no lockdown
I guess we will have to see if there is a newer and stronger variant ?
Either way I will get my flu jab too I think !

[ToraToraTora]

apparently, the train is at the airport hoping to take off against the tide.

[bobbinwales]

Any references to extra time or penalty shootouts

[Deskdiary]

Whilst Whitty and Van Tam are brilliant in their fields, forgive me if I’m sceptical given their scenarios have been proven to be massively over exaggerated.

[Atheist]

"...massively over-exaggerated..." A bit like your prose, DD. I've told you a million billion times not to massively over exaggerate!

[bobbinwales]

Dont think so deskdiary? Have you got an example?
The only one I can think of is that someone (not them) said daily infections could rise to 50000 and maybe 100000 a day temporarily after 19 July and fingers crossed we're way down on that.
Remember Whitty was criticised for UNDER estimating the deaths in the first wave

[Deskdiary]

Bob, I’d have to scroll though past stuff (which I can’t be arsed to do) but at one point they gave a scenario that turned out to be massively inaccurate. Of course it was only a scenario, or in other words a guess, but it was hugely wrong. At the time I chalked it up as guesswork (and I hoped it was guesswork) and as it happened they were massively wrong. I’m not so sceptical to suggest it was scaremongering, but their wrong scenario certainly scared the less robust amongst us.

[Peter Pedant]

The models are as good as their assumptions - the numbers they plug in

The collapse we have seen ( but we are modest so no one says that) was obviously underway when they relaxed measures
and no one knew
it is obvious that if you keep a lid on something ( lockdown) and then take the lid off ( relax conditions) there will be a rehound ( more cases)

so the collapse has occurred but the question is why not sooner?

[ this occurred in the Manchester diphtheria outbreak - ring vaccination caused the pathogenic bacterium to implode - but the last time I wrote that, all I got was gormless sfoo why we do bacteria ven when did is viral? why den"

[Canary42]

Unfortunately, however scary, it will never get through to the ostriches.

Sadly we are doomed from their same attitude to Climate Change.

[douglas9401]

There appears to be some confusion between Covid and bird flu.

[Peter Pedant]

// Bob, I’d have to scroll though past stuff (which I can’t be arsed to do)//

yeah I show reluctance to go back thro the usual suspects maunderings.

all the scenario are projections because they treat of the future and not the past ( look back ) Their basis is that they have worked in the past.

Otherwise we sit on our butts and say we just cant tell
even when we can.

The problem is that the Ro number is given to 20% - 1.2 to 1.4
and the variation this gives in the equations is huge ( 60%)

Whitty said it wouldbe good to keep deaths under 20 000 but I cant remember his upperbound - was it 40 000

but I agree having the numbers go the other way not increase but fall is pretty terrible

[Peter Pedant]

// There appears to be some confusion between Covid and bird flu.//
ish

if there is a animal reservoir ( dogs and cats can get it but that does not show there is a pool - a bit like ebola ) then it will behave like flu
yearly recurrences

[Peter Pedant]

I thought JVT did rather well

one of his answers was - - we just dont know the answer to that

another was a muttered response to a future unlikely scenario
will we have another like this in our life time ?

I thought he would for chrissakes how am I meant to know the answer to that sort of stuff ? - I will ask Viet soothsayer

[Zacs-Master]

What a ferkin genius he is, eh!

[ichkeria]

“ one of his answers was - - we just dont know the answer to that ”

Whereas a politician would answer a different question with a positive answer :-)
Perhaps.
Isolation reduces immunity to illnesses including the ones you’re isolating from.
That’s a lesson we’ve learned recently.
So it’s a question of risk balance.

[youngmafbog]

//Sadly we are doomed from their same attitude to Climate Change.//

Ah yes the other doom mongering prophesy that is now being bandied about now they are loosing the fear of COVID. Also dodgy models.

[jim360]

Climate Change was already known to be a threat before Covid, and will be an issue long after too. No given model can be anything other than indicative, but it's difficult to see how anyone can look at the various extreme weather events from the last decade or so, when coupled with the increases in human-sourced greenhouse gas emissions, and not draw a link between them.