Latest E C Prediction, Boris Wins By 20 Majority.........

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
...+4 from last month. Rodders and his merry men should watch the new Labour 4 part documentary on the BBC at the moment. I Watched part 1 last night where St Tony said that he thought TGL and the Tories were doing a lot right and set out to make the party similarly electable, essentially Tory Lite was created.

[bednobs]

^^^ i enjoyed that program and thought it was interesting

[ichkeria]

I'd be interested in that documentary, thanks
As for the poll, depends how you look at it:
80 seat majority slashed to 20, and we are not two years in.
For Labour to win a majority though it would need, I think, a swing nationally on 10.3%, which is a mighty tall order.
But who knows.
Some predicted the death of the Tory party around the time of the last European elections ...

[ToraToraTora]

ich: "As for the poll, depends how you look at it:
80 seat majority slashed to 20, and we are not two years in. " - you expect that mid term and this is also mid crisis. TGL was miles adrift in 1982 having started with a massive majority. Labour should be ahead by miles. At this point in the parliament Boris will be delighted that despite all the issues he'd still win a GE tomorrow.

[ToraToraTora]

"Some predicted the death of the Tory party around the time of the last European elections ... " - dreamers perhaps, the Tories have been in power for 90 of the 120 years that Labour have existed.

[naomi24]

//depends how you look at it:
80 seat majority slashed to 20, and we are not two years in. //

It does indeed depend how you look at it. Unprecedented times must be considered - but some prefer to ignore that. Funny old business, politics.

[ichkeria]

Yes but Tora we all know the backdrop to this; a Labour party in turmoil after one of the worst defeats ever.
I think a mere 20 seat Tory majority at this stage would be seen as progress.
I’m not predicting a Labour victory come the day. I think an electoral pact might be needed but I cannot see that happening.
Who knows the future though?

[ichkeria]

“ TGL was miles adrift in 1982 having started with a massive majority”

And then the Falklands happened.
Like I say, no one knows what’s round the corner

[gulliver1]

10.52 Boris does not need a Falklands style war to save his neck , he has manufactured one on his own doorstep........but it won't save him......hopefully.

[Peter Pedant]

a week is a long time in politics
Harold Wilson

[ToraToraTora]

gully can you explain why you think Boris will lose the 2024 GE when all the polls say not?

[ichkeria]

I don't think they are, are they?
They are predicting a majority of 20 in an "imminent" election: the rest is just projection of probability.
"The future is never certain"
You don;t need to be as professional pollster to know that, though

[davebro]

A huge upset which could conceivably happen is Indyref2 & a YES vote. Eventually stripping the SNP out of Westminster would cement the Tories grip on power probably for generations.

[ichkeria]

And you don't think the current Tories are "Labour lite" then?
The party under Johnson is sort of committed now to its Brexit-voting so-called red wall voters who delivered the big majority, That means spending big, as we have already seen, to offset the effects of Brexit and all the talk of "levelling up" (not all agree with this of course)
The railways may well come back under public ownership, there's talk of hiking the minimum wage, and of course the cajoling bosses into paying everyone more :-)

[Gromit]

Definitely don’t want electable at any cost. ToryLite was a con on everyone. The Labour Party sold its soul to the devil to get the bankers and Murdoch's approval.
It was 13 wasted years for the poor.
If that is Starmer’s plan for returning to power, he should give up. No one wants that.

[Gromit]

So Labour are 20 seats behind with over 2 years to go before the next GE. That is doable ;-)
(Though I don’t expect it to happen)

[THECORBYLOON]

The poll is based upon an election the following day so anything could happen between now and 2024 to affect the liklihood of a Tory majority.

[gulliver1]

I do see that one of Boris's advisers has warned him if things anymore *** up than they are ,
he might have to seriously think about including a referendum to rejoin the E/U in his next pre/election Manifesto

[bobbinwales]

Theres no chance of a EU referendum in Labour or Tory manifesto's gulliver.

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "The Labour Party sold its soul to the devil to get the bankers and Murdoch's approval. " - indeed but do you accept that real Labour could never have won? Kinnochio realised it, so did TB, GB may have been more of a John Smithite and if Labour had elected GB leader instead of TB then I don't think they'd have won either. Yes, I agree TB et al had to completely change the party to get power, which is why I, do not consider them a real Labour government. Puzzled that you seem to.

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "If that is Starmer’s plan for returning to power, he should give up. No one wants that. " - it's the only way if they want power again. Real Labour last won in 1974.