Quizzes & Puzzles3 mins ago
Why Are We Bothered If Russia Invades Ukraine?
How will it affect us in the UK and what can we possibly do about it?
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//ynnafymmi: "Both the first world war and the second world war didnt really need to have British involvement." - now I thought I'd heard all the crass statements but that's a world beater. I don't know where to start......//
I have read commentary that WW1 would have been a much smaller & more localised affair if Britain hadn't got involved. WW2 was a different kettle of fish but resulting in part from the effects of WW1.
I have read commentary that WW1 would have been a much smaller & more localised affair if Britain hadn't got involved. WW2 was a different kettle of fish but resulting in part from the effects of WW1.
Gas prices would go up even more is one reason.
What can we do:
Hope the deterrent effect of threats and sanctions has an effect, but mainly I think the fairly obvious deterrent, and much much greater deterrent of the cost to Russia in terms of economic and human loss and the fsact that any wat would be very very unpopular at home.
Other than that, copied from other posts:
The whole situation is somewhat bizarre.
We hear from the government that Russia has a proxy lined up to take over in Ukraine, namely Yevhen Murayev.
I am not sure under what sort of delusion Putin thinks that he could instal any sort of a puppet ruler in Ukraine. They tried that in 2004 and it led to the Orange revolution then, one which, unlike in 2014, Ukraine was not really ready. It simply would not work now, even less.
Similarly, 117,000 troops sounds a lot, but it is nowhere near enough to mount a serious invasion of a country the size of Ukraine with its own sizeable and very well trained, and prepared, armed forces. Added to the fact that such an obvious act of aggression would be massively unpopular with Russians, even before the thousands of body bags started returning.
The most likely or predictable move would simple be a further incursion into E Ukraine (with no withdrawal) on the same principle used in Georgia and arguably also Moldova : namely a destabilised and divided country is likely to be admitted to NATO.
And hope the country weakens itself politically in the process.
The revelation from the US about the possible false flag operation suggests they are or were planning to move there.
After all the denials they’d need something for their propaganda outlets to seize on.
It’s interesting that the US and UK seem determined to make public their intelligence. That could be quite an effective preemptive tactic
What can we do:
Hope the deterrent effect of threats and sanctions has an effect, but mainly I think the fairly obvious deterrent, and much much greater deterrent of the cost to Russia in terms of economic and human loss and the fsact that any wat would be very very unpopular at home.
Other than that, copied from other posts:
The whole situation is somewhat bizarre.
We hear from the government that Russia has a proxy lined up to take over in Ukraine, namely Yevhen Murayev.
I am not sure under what sort of delusion Putin thinks that he could instal any sort of a puppet ruler in Ukraine. They tried that in 2004 and it led to the Orange revolution then, one which, unlike in 2014, Ukraine was not really ready. It simply would not work now, even less.
Similarly, 117,000 troops sounds a lot, but it is nowhere near enough to mount a serious invasion of a country the size of Ukraine with its own sizeable and very well trained, and prepared, armed forces. Added to the fact that such an obvious act of aggression would be massively unpopular with Russians, even before the thousands of body bags started returning.
The most likely or predictable move would simple be a further incursion into E Ukraine (with no withdrawal) on the same principle used in Georgia and arguably also Moldova : namely a destabilised and divided country is likely to be admitted to NATO.
And hope the country weakens itself politically in the process.
The revelation from the US about the possible false flag operation suggests they are or were planning to move there.
After all the denials they’d need something for their propaganda outlets to seize on.
It’s interesting that the US and UK seem determined to make public their intelligence. That could be quite an effective preemptive tactic
The UK has sent anti-tank weapons and personnel to train the Ukrainian military in their use.
Militarily that is likely to be the sum of it as far as Ukraine itself goes.
It is extraordinary how we all love to navel-gaze our oen affairs at times like this.
But that surely is half of the attraction of all this to someone like Putin: it sows doubt and confusion ("what's he up to?" etc) and gets people talking about him, but one this he don't like is to be ignored.
And hence in response a reason in part for the West's intel revelations: an attempt to cut through the smoke and mirrors.
Militarily that is likely to be the sum of it as far as Ukraine itself goes.
It is extraordinary how we all love to navel-gaze our oen affairs at times like this.
But that surely is half of the attraction of all this to someone like Putin: it sows doubt and confusion ("what's he up to?" etc) and gets people talking about him, but one this he don't like is to be ignored.
And hence in response a reason in part for the West's intel revelations: an attempt to cut through the smoke and mirrors.
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