Who Will Buy Russian Oil And Gas Going Forward?

[ToraToraTora]

Just listening to Sleepy Joe and Lily Von Schtupp on Sky News talking about moving away from Russian gas and oil etc. When this is all over Vlad would have lost the war and most of his customers to boot. I wonder if he envisaged it would go this way.

[davebro]

I'm sure he didn't but he's too stupid or too afraid of losing face to put a stop to it.

[dannyk13]

//I wonder if he envisaged it would go this way.//
Obviously not or he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine.

[Fatalbertfixer]

Am sure China will gladly take his oil and gas,North Korea too.

[1ozzy]

Vlad won't concede defeat.
It's a fight to the death and he doesn't care who dies.

[Gromit]

China.
Currently buys 30% of its fuel from Russia and will probably double that.
Germany buys 35% and will probably lower that to nil (UK 5% will also find alternative sources).

As long as a country has precious resources such as Oil, gas, Titanium and metals and minerals it is not going to go broke. The economy will hurt briefly but will eventually recover.

Sanctions aimed at individuals are the way to go, and will hurt the right people.

[ichkeria]

Sanctions aimed at individuals plainly are not the way to go, advisable as they are

[ToraToraTora]

Once the Russians Liberate themselves from Mad Vlad they'll get cooperation from the world but until then they'll be a Pariah state little better than NK.

[youngmafbog]

China, probably Iran and North Korea will buy things from them. I would expect China to levy some pretty hefty caveats on any purchase undoubtedly driving the price down.

It's Europe that will struggle the most. The UK could easliy loose the 5% especially if we open our own reserves as we should. Having said that we should be able to pump down the Nord stream in reverse to Europe to help them out. If the Prime Minister and her husband allow of course.

//The economy will hurt briefly but will eventually recover.//

The Russian economy was only oil and gas really. The rest of their economy was a total basket case before any of this started. I think they will struggle to recover especially since they will no longer get top dollar for their oil/gas.

[ichkeria]

Exactly
And it’ll take years for China to be able to replace Europe’s market

[youngmafbog]

//Once the Russians Liberate themselves from Mad Vlad they'll get cooperation from the world//

That's assuming his successor will be better. It's most likely to be one of his successors and could indeed be far worse.

Unfortunately for the Russians who dont want this they are in for a very rough time.

[Gromit]

The war is a wake up call for Putin.
The war has not gone to script chiefly cause he believed his own propaganda based on his prejudices, and bad intell.
The war is drawn out rather than a decisive victory. The international reaction will have surprised Putin who go away with the annexation of Crimea.

[ToraToraTora]

YMB: "That's assuming his successor will be better. It's most likely to be one of his successors and could indeed be far worse. " - that could happen but I think any group considering a coup would have a plan to change the country significantly or nothing will change. Russia is heading down the pan rapidly and that would encourage them to move toward western ideology and potentially democracy. There is no point having a coup to change nothing.

[youngmafbog]

//There is no point having a coup to change nothing.//

Except for financial gain of those at the top. The country doesnt have to be fully functioning for that to happen as we have seen in other tin pot countries.

I hope you are right and I am wrong though.

[Gromit]

Autocrats like Putin tend to surround themselves of clones who are exactly the same. That is why bad decisions like invading Ukraine happen - there is no one there to say ‘Stop! This is crazy’.
It is also why promoting the assassination or overthrown of Putin won’t really improve anything. There are a dozen people who will fill his shoes but are the same, or worse.

[ToraToraTora]

yes it may well take a revolution like the one in 1917.

[Gromit]

The end of Communism in 1991 was also a significant date. Yeltsin became President as an Independent, and employed Putin as his fixer. It was Putin who transferred Russian state assets to regime friendly goons who became the oligarchs.
It would be nice if the Russian people woke up and realised they had been ripped off, and had a peoples’ revolution (not a communist one) and sent Putin, his mafia and the oligarchs on the same path as the Tsars.

[ToraToraTora]

can't argue with that Gromit, BA! Did you see the "how did Abramovich get his cash?" documentary the other day! Beggars belief how he became a billionaire out of thin air!

[ichkeria]

What I could not understand from that Panorama program was why the Russian state at the time was helping Abramovich to rob it blind!
Lending him money stolen from taxes etc to purchase state assets cheaply. People like Berezovsky, who of course later fell out with him.
Why not, when it came to Slavneft for example, accept more money from the Chinese, instead of forcing them out of the bidding.

[Deskdiary]

"If the Prime Minister and her husband allow of course."

Winner.