And that is so true NJ. Could well be Stalin v2 as well.
The only thing useful for the West and neighbouring countries is this buys us time to be independent of Russia (and hopefully move towards independence on China) so we keep the country on the fringes until the time is right to embrace them again.
A lot of very rich people in Russia are being badly affected by the war. It is bad for trade, it is bad for profits and it is bad for their ability to enjoy their wealth.
And the promised benefits have not happened. Rather than Russia re-emerging as a strong power, they have been humiliated.
I expect Putin will be dead before Christmas. And his successor will hastily try to press the reset button. We do not have to accept their terms for peace, but we will.
Putin has already chosen his successor. But if he just doesn’t wake up one morning, he may not influence who comes next.
Russia is very corrupt and a lot of his cronies prospered under Putin. They will be more concerned with getting their assets unfrozen and the money rolling in again, than repeating Putin’s mistakes.
It’s certainly true that 18 more deputies/officials in Moscow and St Petersburg have called for Putin to resign, following the 17 in St Petersburg who did so last week and have since I think been arrested.
Russian Telegram channels are in meltdown with many openly attacking him.
Events in Ukraine meanwhile are gathering pace. It seems Russian officials are abandoning offices in places in Donbas that have been occupied since 2014, including the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Convoys of Russian military are heading south - a bit like the “special military operation” itself :-)
There have been so many rumours and reports of a mass surrender of Russian forces in Kherson that it seems likely to be confirmed in hours.
How does Putin survive defeat when it comes?
He doesn’t, in short
Within the last hour:
"The military command of the Russian Federation suspends the sending of new, already formed units to the territory of Ukraine."
From the General Staff of the Ukrainian army
There is only one “solution” gromit.
A total Russian defeat.
The only alternative to that might have been some sort of agreement after months or years of stalemate.
It’s clear now that there will be no stalemate. It’s when not if Russia withdraws.
When you read about the state of the Russian army now at the time of the invasion it’s honestly staggering that they’re still fighting
Russia is already defeated. A change of leader would facilitate a full withdrawal.
NATO or UN troops need to be deployed in Ukraine to prevent this happening again.
But you will be surprised at how quickly sanctions will be lifted, and freezed assets unfrozen and Russia welcomed back to the top table again.
But Russia’s crimes are huge and there will be no mood of compromise in Ukraine.
There are a lot of things we could demand of who or whatever comes after Putin. And that is where sanctions play a part. Because the lifting of them is all we have in return.
No one knows what sort of Russia will emerge from this debacle. It could be more of the same or worse or maybe better. What we are willing to give in return will depend on that. It seems highly unlikely we’ll trust them as a reliable energy supplier for example years to come.
A good example of the sheer wooden headed barbarity of their war effort: presumably in revenge for their defeat in Kharkiv they launched a dozen cruise missiles at power stations in the Kharkiv area (prompting Zelensky’s stirring “with light or without you? Without you …” speech).
Most were shot down but some hit home.
The cost of the hardware: about 10% of Russia’s GDP. Military value: zero
And it’s another item on the reparations billZ