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Well You Did Inspire An Army Vlad........
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We should try not to let outselves be too frightened by Putin. Not easy I know.
He doesn't wield as much power as you might imagine.
Yes he wields a lot of power in Russia, but his Russia has been exposed as a military *** show.
It all comes down to the nuclear threat. It's his only card, and even then it's realistically only the threat of it which he can use.
And it looks like he's gone for sabotage against the west instead.
But any way he turns, and any way you look, he is finished. It is only a matter of time. It may not be pleasant, and the replacement also may not be pleasant, but he has drastically weakened his country's security. For example they have taken a lot of troops from the borfers of places like Finland to fight in Ukraine. Which says a lot about how they really view the threat from Nato, despite the rhetoric.
He doesn't wield as much power as you might imagine.
Yes he wields a lot of power in Russia, but his Russia has been exposed as a military *** show.
It all comes down to the nuclear threat. It's his only card, and even then it's realistically only the threat of it which he can use.
And it looks like he's gone for sabotage against the west instead.
But any way he turns, and any way you look, he is finished. It is only a matter of time. It may not be pleasant, and the replacement also may not be pleasant, but he has drastically weakened his country's security. For example they have taken a lot of troops from the borfers of places like Finland to fight in Ukraine. Which says a lot about how they really view the threat from Nato, despite the rhetoric.
Understandable.
But I think an actual WW3 is unlikely. Who would fight it?
In WWI and WWIII there were empires ranges against each other - even WWII, where you had Germany and Japan on the same side: two expansionist powers, and Britain still had an empire, not of the nature of those two it is true.
Russia now is in no shape to expand beyond the dubious borders it has apparently set itself, and is fighting a losing battle to hold even those.
It's nuclear exchanges that people fear (ok that is a lot worse!) but I think everyone needs to calm down a little. Biden apparently has told Putin quietly what will happen if he so much as uses a single tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine (or anywhere else).
We don't know what (I'd imagine not a nuclear one), and we don't know what the response would be back, but I am naive enough to believe that it will not some to that.
But I think an actual WW3 is unlikely. Who would fight it?
In WWI and WWIII there were empires ranges against each other - even WWII, where you had Germany and Japan on the same side: two expansionist powers, and Britain still had an empire, not of the nature of those two it is true.
Russia now is in no shape to expand beyond the dubious borders it has apparently set itself, and is fighting a losing battle to hold even those.
It's nuclear exchanges that people fear (ok that is a lot worse!) but I think everyone needs to calm down a little. Biden apparently has told Putin quietly what will happen if he so much as uses a single tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine (or anywhere else).
We don't know what (I'd imagine not a nuclear one), and we don't know what the response would be back, but I am naive enough to believe that it will not some to that.
Erdogan does have some clout. He holds the keys to the Black Sea. Remember though that this is not a conflict where realisitcally there can be a settlement as such.
I've said this before, but Putin should have declared when Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk were captured, meaning that he had more or less captured all of Luhansk, and his forces were well dug in in the south. He could have announced the "special military operation" a success and tried to paint Ukraine as the aggressor.
He could even have withdrawn, declaring his "denazification" project complete and got to work with his domestic propaganda machine working overtime, and rebuilding his military.
Might have worked. Although the stench of his war crimes and general brutality I suppose would have left the west in less of a mood to respond in kind.
Now it seens as though his forces have abandned Kreminna in Luhansk - if true that is a devastating setback which will ultimately lead to a retreat at the very least to the Feb lines.
Zelensky and Zaluzhny smell blood and they won't stop :-)
I've said this before, but Putin should have declared when Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk were captured, meaning that he had more or less captured all of Luhansk, and his forces were well dug in in the south. He could have announced the "special military operation" a success and tried to paint Ukraine as the aggressor.
He could even have withdrawn, declaring his "denazification" project complete and got to work with his domestic propaganda machine working overtime, and rebuilding his military.
Might have worked. Although the stench of his war crimes and general brutality I suppose would have left the west in less of a mood to respond in kind.
Now it seens as though his forces have abandned Kreminna in Luhansk - if true that is a devastating setback which will ultimately lead to a retreat at the very least to the Feb lines.
Zelensky and Zaluzhny smell blood and they won't stop :-)
//Zelensky and Zaluzhny smell blood and they won't stop//
I agree with you. As you have also said, events which have unfolded during this conflict are as such, it leaves no wiggle room for Putin to save face. In that respect the Rubicon has truly been crossed.
Past history tells us how both the Americans and Russians were humiliated post WW2; namely in the Vietnam and Afghan wars respectively. With the intervention of the West... Sattelite reconnaissance, eclectic sources of military intelligence, arms supplied to Ukrainian forces from NATO countries, demoralised Russian troops, desertion even... This is a war I feel the Russians cannot win. The burning question.... Is Putin big enough to accept defeat like one of his predecessor's did?
I agree with you. As you have also said, events which have unfolded during this conflict are as such, it leaves no wiggle room for Putin to save face. In that respect the Rubicon has truly been crossed.
Past history tells us how both the Americans and Russians were humiliated post WW2; namely in the Vietnam and Afghan wars respectively. With the intervention of the West... Sattelite reconnaissance, eclectic sources of military intelligence, arms supplied to Ukrainian forces from NATO countries, demoralised Russian troops, desertion even... This is a war I feel the Russians cannot win. The burning question.... Is Putin big enough to accept defeat like one of his predecessor's did?
"Is Putin big enough to accept defeat like one of his predecessor's did? "
Plainly not. Rubicon is dead right. He cannot withdraw now from territory he says is Russia. I admit, that is a bit scary, but mainly I would say for him.
I am not sure, but I think these territories are not offically annexed yet. Yesterday was ceremonial, although no suggestion the process will not be completed.
Local observers now saying Ukrainian forces have entered part of Lyman, where 5000+ Russians supposedly trapped ...
Plainly not. Rubicon is dead right. He cannot withdraw now from territory he says is Russia. I admit, that is a bit scary, but mainly I would say for him.
I am not sure, but I think these territories are not offically annexed yet. Yesterday was ceremonial, although no suggestion the process will not be completed.
Local observers now saying Ukrainian forces have entered part of Lyman, where 5000+ Russians supposedly trapped ...
I actually think Putin probably is unhinged.
um um I thought his speech had a thread - to wit ( geddit?)
1.not withstanding it all started in Kyev -
2.catherine the Great ( not russian by the way but still good for russia) and Peter the great laid great plans for Greater Russia
3, and went a long way to achieving it ( not mentioning the Russians were in Paree in 1815)
4 and it all went splat 1990 and quite honestly I would have shot them all and that would have re-glued the empire
5. but no one had the barlz to
6. so I have to do it
7 and my my havent I done well !
um um I thought his speech had a thread - to wit ( geddit?)
1.not withstanding it all started in Kyev -
2.catherine the Great ( not russian by the way but still good for russia) and Peter the great laid great plans for Greater Russia
3, and went a long way to achieving it ( not mentioning the Russians were in Paree in 1815)
4 and it all went splat 1990 and quite honestly I would have shot them all and that would have re-glued the empire
5. but no one had the barlz to
6. so I have to do it
7 and my my havent I done well !
Ukrainian forces have entered part of Lyman, where 5000+ Russians supposedly trapped .
sort of crazy Dien Bien Foo
1952 the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu was so shattering that the prearranged meeting there was only one item on the agendum
when the French wd withdraw
Yeah OK I fink it is OK for the standard ABer to exclaim
who the foo is Dien Bien Foo !
sort of crazy Dien Bien Foo
1952 the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu was so shattering that the prearranged meeting there was only one item on the agendum
when the French wd withdraw
Yeah OK I fink it is OK for the standard ABer to exclaim
who the foo is Dien Bien Foo !
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