Uk Not Going Into Recession

[Zacs-Master]

Some good(ish) news for a change!
‘Experts have also ditched their recession projections for this year, mainly due to households holding up better amid the worst cost of living crunch in a generation’

https://www.cityam.com/uk-poised-to-have-officially-dodged-recession-last-year-as-outlook-brightens/

[ToraToraTora]

oh no, that'll upset the 5C!

[davebro]

//worst cost of living crunch in a generation//

I don't understand the bleating about 4% mortgage rates when some of us were paying 15% in the 80s. People have just got in over their heads creating an unaffordable boom in house prices in the process. Your own fault.

[ichkeria]

It is good news, very, tho not really news? I thought I had heard this last week or earlier.

[rowanwitch]

Sometimes a positive projection can be a self fulfilling prophesy, just a little extra confidence can give investment and growth a nudge in the right direction.

[rowanwitch]

Davebro, I remember it well, both my husband and I were in well paid jobs but when the interest rates were rocketing we had to look for extra income. That was in the days of low multiples too. 2½ x joint income was about the highest you could get back then.

[Zacs-Master]

Indeed, Rowan. I firmly believe that the UK has talked itself into recessions before.

Ich…..possibly.

[Zacs-Master]

I distinctly remember our first mortgage interest rate in 1988/89 being 15.3%.

[rowanwitch]

I think the peak was around 17% for a few weeks, luckily it fell back fairly quickly.
But houses were still selling even during that period of uncertainty.

[MissTerious2]

I can remember clearly times being much worse, but we just got on with it. No government handouts. And no expectations. The problem is now that life has been cushy for the last couple of generations and they haven't learned to cope. And we didn't live on credit cards or beyond our means. Our government has given far too much help during the last few years. There were those that should have had that help, but far more that didn't.

OK I know I'm a boring old lady, but I think I've lived a more fulfilling life by getting off my backside and not moaning all the time about how dreadful life is.


And I brought my kid up to be resourceful too.

[bazwillrun]

Oh no...does that mean the garbage the gullible1 and the other neuron time share merchant have been posting about how brexit has ruined us are wrong ?...hold the front page

[Zacs-Master]

Still, future looks a bit brighter tho, eh!

[Zacs-Master]

It means they were less right, baz.

[New Judge]

I know what the technical definition of a recession is. However, the way the media (especially the anti-Brexit variety) portrays the situation in the UK is totally at odds with what I have encountered.

Everywhere I go that involves "discretionary" spending seems packed out. Pubs, restaurants, bars, places of entertainment all seem packed to the gunwales. I've just been on holiday - airport heaving, no spare seats on the aircraft, everywhere in the resort packed out. I was out Saturday night at a local Greek restaurant. Every table occupied, those without bookings being turned away. Last month I was in London for a friend's birthday bash. Friday night, pub we met in was standing room only (and not much of that to be had), restaurant in Covent Garden full and turning people away. There seems to be plenty of cash about, yet the government (i.e. the taxpayer) is paying a third of my gas and leccy bill.

[youngmafbog]

Well NJ, perhaps the feel good factor from having your leccy bill paid for has encouraged people to still spend. And when they spend on going out the VAT and Excise duty helps lob some back to the Exchequer. So perhaps the leccy subsidy isnt so much as we think?

[New Judge]

//So perhaps the leccy subsidy isnt so much as we think?//

I quite agree, youngmaf. Anything that gets people out spending, moving the money around whilst the Chancellor takes his cut can only be good. It's just that my experience as I outlined seems totally at odds with some of the descriptions portrayed in the media. There always have been and always will be "poor" people - that is, people who have less money than others. You and I could fit into that category, depending on who we're compared to. But the incessant doom-mongering wears a bit thin when you see that, in fact, most people are not doing too badly at all.

[jno]

I'm unclear what the story is saying

"the UK narrowly dodged the official recession definition of two consecutive quarters of contraction. The economy slipped 0.2 per cent in the three months to September, while monthly GDP for December was deeply negative at minus 0.5 per cent."

So that's one quarter of contraction then two months unmentioned then one month of "deep" contraction. What happened to October and November? Why is a business paper omitting the figures that actually support their point?