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The Middle East - What Next?
Israel is being urged not to retaliate to Iran's aggression but plans are afoot to evacuate Britons living in the Middle East. Is it possible that Israel will heed the advice?
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i truly hope israel does listen and back down but my impression is that Netanyahu seems quite keen on full on war against iran. let us imagine a situation where israel ignores Biden and mounts an attack on Iran e.g. through its ally Azerbaijian... do we really think the USA will not bail them out anyway? there is every chance of the USA and UK getting dragged into a terrible regional war if Washington is not willing to tell Israel no.
it was a terrible mistake to attack the iranian consulate in damascus. A reckless and foolish move.
Repeat posting of mine from another thread;
Israel should do nothing at all (for now). They have gained huge sympathy from around the world including all the G7 countries by this outrageous attack. They should continue to finish the job in Gaza undaunted.
'In the months to come, even as it continues its “war between the wars” undeterred, Israel’s top priority should be to achieve its military objectives against Hamas convincingly: decapitating its leadership, dismantling its tunnel infrastructure, and destroying its remaining military brigades. It should do so while working with the United States to far better protect civilians in Gaza, to establish internal security there and deny Hamas’s reconstitution, and to vastly improve humanitarian conditions for innocent Palestinians. Nothing would do more immediate damage to the Iranian narrative than to have Iran’s partner in Gaza suffer an indisputable defeat.'
Atlantic Council.
"Is it possible that Israel will heed the advice?"
Probably not. But we're not dealing with normal, rational people and it is foolish to think we are.
"it was a terrible mistake to attack the iranian consulate in damascus. A reckless and foolish move."
Possibly. But then it was not particularly sensible of Hamas to attack Israel six months ago, killing over 1,000 people and taking a large number of hostages, including children. As I said, these are not normal, rational people.
The Middle East is populated by a number of unstable regimes and has been turbulent for my entire life. It will remain turbulent into the distant future so long as those regimes remain in place.
It's okay for other countries to give Israel advice, but Israel will need to do what is right for Israel. Allowing Iran to directly attack like they did, and not responding in a serious way would likely increase the likelihood of future attacks. If Iran think they can get away with it, who would be next? Israel's response — and there should be a response — should not be proportionate. It should be far stronger because when deterrence fails to re-establish, you have to teach the adversary that any gain they may hope to get by any future attack will be more than outweighed by the damage that will be caused.
Iran and Israel are not neighbours. Those drones and cruise missiles were flying over other countries, like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It's not clear, when they were taken down, where they were taken down this time. But if things escalate, it's clear that Brits might need to leave several countries ...
That would depend on the circumstances fiveleaves. At all times the decision to be made should be the best one. 500 drones etc. that were known not to be likely to reach their destination, fired after we'd attacked the assailant, and when our military was occupied with prioritising a more urgent issue, then the non-reaction & monitor decision could well be the wiser one. One choses one's battles and times them with care.
The argument for restraint: Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran gave a lot of notice that a retaliatory strike would be sent. The result was a full-on assault that did very little damage. So we're done.
The argument for not restraint: the attack on the consulate is not where it all started, just part of an ongoing conflict. Iran sent a lot of ordnance. Time to hit back.
Israel's friends are urging restraint. But Netanyahu doesn't necessarily listen to Israel's friends, given that he's in coalition with hardliners.
the trouble Ellipsis is that Israel can be very confident that the USA will bail it out
Israel is militarily and economically completely dependent on the USA... but also knows that the US government will never allow it to fall. which means they can take big risks and be sure that big brother will swoop in to rescue them.
if israel is not reined in then it will drag the USA - and likely the UK - into an absolutely horrifying slog of a war with Iran that will do no good for anyone.
