For decades historians have accused the Allies of killing up to 500,000 civilians on the night of February 13 1945, when British and American planes destroyed the old city centre.
But a special commission, comprising 13 prominent German historians, has now revealed that the previous figures were exaggerated or derived from dubious sources.
The commission, assembled in 2004 and headed by one the country's most prominent military historians, Rolf-Dieter Mueller, studied all the available evidence about the event - much of which was examined for the first time.
Mr Mueller said that the final report of the commission, to be published next year, aims to end the "ludicrous speculation" about the Dresden causalities, which was used for propaganda by the Nazis.
"In the course of its research the commission has so far identified around 18,000 victims of the air raids in Dresden," Mr Mueller said. "The commission estimates that a maximum of 25,000 people lost their lives in the February attacks."
Unofficially, commission members indicated that they did not expect the final death toll to exceed 20,000.
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