Editor's Blog0 min ago
Swine Flu
Are there any stats yet about people who have had this illness and are fully recovered.
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If 31 people have died out of the total of 100,000 so far that makes 99,961 who are recovering or have already done so.
If the vaccine won't be readily available to the general public until Dec 09 will it still be necessary by then? The number of people catching the disease is doubling every week according to the press.
Now: 100,000
1 weeks time: 200,000
2 weeks: 400,000
3 weeks: 800,000
4 weeks 1,600,000
5 weeks 3,200,000
6 weeks 6,400,000
7 weeks 12,800,000
8 weeks 25,600,000
9 weeks 52,000,000
What and the vaccine still not available?
If the vaccine won't be readily available to the general public until Dec 09 will it still be necessary by then? The number of people catching the disease is doubling every week according to the press.
Now: 100,000
1 weeks time: 200,000
2 weeks: 400,000
3 weeks: 800,000
4 weeks 1,600,000
5 weeks 3,200,000
6 weeks 6,400,000
7 weeks 12,800,000
8 weeks 25,600,000
9 weeks 52,000,000
What and the vaccine still not available?
Well done Rov, we now know you can double numbers.
Fortunately this virus does not double week on week. In the US, who share a border with Mexico, the virus has already peaked a few weeks ago and it is thought that we may have already peaked in the UK or will do very soon.
We can then expect the spread of the virus to reduce week on week but return with a peak in the winter.
Dr Alan Hay, director of the London-based World Influenza Centre, estimated that the number of swine flu cases would peak within the next two weeks ahead of a return of the virus in the winter.
He told Today: "I think we will see a peak in this country in the next week or two if not already - it will reduce, we don't know to what extent the level will drop down to a background level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/58 99084/Swine-flu-Critically-ill-pregnant-woman- getting-best-treatment-in-Sweden.html
Fortunately this virus does not double week on week. In the US, who share a border with Mexico, the virus has already peaked a few weeks ago and it is thought that we may have already peaked in the UK or will do very soon.
We can then expect the spread of the virus to reduce week on week but return with a peak in the winter.
Dr Alan Hay, director of the London-based World Influenza Centre, estimated that the number of swine flu cases would peak within the next two weeks ahead of a return of the virus in the winter.
He told Today: "I think we will see a peak in this country in the next week or two if not already - it will reduce, we don't know to what extent the level will drop down to a background level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/58 99084/Swine-flu-Critically-ill-pregnant-woman- getting-best-treatment-in-Sweden.html
It has peaked in Scotland
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/23/sw ine-flu-in-scotland-may-have-peaked
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/23/sw ine-flu-in-scotland-may-have-peaked
Just take this quote from the government just 2 weeks ago:
"There are now 7,447 diagnosed cases in the UK, but the number is doubling every week" We had 100,000 last week.
Obviously there is a finite amount of people that can be affected. Many people will never catch the disease as they are already immune. Also those that have been infected will not catch the same disease again.
But when the plateau is reached is really unknown but if we get to that period the vaccine will not be necessary for those groups.
My original point still stands. To spend �540m on vaccines that will not be used by many when it eventually arrives seems like overkill. We have ordered 90million doses at �6 per shot.
Epidemiologists should now have enough data to give an accurate forecast.
"There are now 7,447 diagnosed cases in the UK, but the number is doubling every week" We had 100,000 last week.
Obviously there is a finite amount of people that can be affected. Many people will never catch the disease as they are already immune. Also those that have been infected will not catch the same disease again.
But when the plateau is reached is really unknown but if we get to that period the vaccine will not be necessary for those groups.
My original point still stands. To spend �540m on vaccines that will not be used by many when it eventually arrives seems like overkill. We have ordered 90million doses at �6 per shot.
Epidemiologists should now have enough data to give an accurate forecast.
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