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Politics2 mins ago
Will the West Iran get the bomb?
http://tinyurl.com/ybnyo5v
How far will the West let DinnerJacket go before they reign him in?
Obvious BGB opportunities here!
How far will the West let DinnerJacket go before they reign him in?
Obvious BGB opportunities here!
Answers
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Well let's think about this for a moment.
Firstly they have to create reactors and then they have to create and run centrifuges and facilities to extract plutonium from the reactors. Then facilities to manufacture bombs and ICBMs capable of delivering them.
Then when they have done this they face a huge and technologically sophisticated nuclear arsenal from western powers.
There's not going to be third world war here!
However From Iran's point of view the US ( and others) have a history of controlling Middle Eastern countries by invading or threatening to invade them - which a nuclear Iran would be fairly immune from!
So you can see why a basic facility would be usefull to them!
However there is also the threat real or perceived of Iran arming terrorist or other covert groups with such a device, and this is a greater concern as it circumvents the western nuclear deterrant - but we already face such a threat from North Korea and possibly Russia to a lesser extent.
It's not easy to see exactly what levers they have to stop this though. An Iraq style invasion would be ridiculously expensive in lives - Other Middle Eastern Countries would be unlikely to accept another weapons of mass destruction excuse.
Sanctions can have an effect but only so far if there is a real determination to acquire them at all costs they will as North Korea did.
And of course sanctions mean Russia has to play ball - and we don't really know yet what Russia wants for that - abandonment of that ballistic missile shield sounds like it was one thing - we'll have to see if anything else follows.
It's complicated
Firstly they have to create reactors and then they have to create and run centrifuges and facilities to extract plutonium from the reactors. Then facilities to manufacture bombs and ICBMs capable of delivering them.
Then when they have done this they face a huge and technologically sophisticated nuclear arsenal from western powers.
There's not going to be third world war here!
However From Iran's point of view the US ( and others) have a history of controlling Middle Eastern countries by invading or threatening to invade them - which a nuclear Iran would be fairly immune from!
So you can see why a basic facility would be usefull to them!
However there is also the threat real or perceived of Iran arming terrorist or other covert groups with such a device, and this is a greater concern as it circumvents the western nuclear deterrant - but we already face such a threat from North Korea and possibly Russia to a lesser extent.
It's not easy to see exactly what levers they have to stop this though. An Iraq style invasion would be ridiculously expensive in lives - Other Middle Eastern Countries would be unlikely to accept another weapons of mass destruction excuse.
Sanctions can have an effect but only so far if there is a real determination to acquire them at all costs they will as North Korea did.
And of course sanctions mean Russia has to play ball - and we don't really know yet what Russia wants for that - abandonment of that ballistic missile shield sounds like it was one thing - we'll have to see if anything else follows.
It's complicated
If you were in his sitation would you do anything different. It seems par for the course to get every other middle east country thinking that you have equal or better defences than them.
Saddam did this by pretending he had WMD. Then you have the most dangerous country in the world Israel to contend with. Upset them and they will try to wipe you off the map. They ignore UN resolutions, they are armed by the US and in a conflict would crush you as witnessed not so long ago. Iran's insecurity about not knowing who your friends are don't help.
The West often say you need nuclear weapons to prevent any other state attacking you and they preach this over and over again. Amadinogad is only following their principles although I believe with him its just bluff.
Saddam did this by pretending he had WMD. Then you have the most dangerous country in the world Israel to contend with. Upset them and they will try to wipe you off the map. They ignore UN resolutions, they are armed by the US and in a conflict would crush you as witnessed not so long ago. Iran's insecurity about not knowing who your friends are don't help.
The West often say you need nuclear weapons to prevent any other state attacking you and they preach this over and over again. Amadinogad is only following their principles although I believe with him its just bluff.
Yes No mercy but we in the west have been sponsoring terrorism and repressive governments for years too.
Twenty years ago Americans even sold arms to the Iranians to fund the Contra terrorists in Nicaragua.
Margaret Thatcher sold Hawk Fighters to Indonesia for use against the East Timorese - now an independent nation and supported Pinnocet who tortured and murdered thousands of his own people.
Right now the UK looks like it's about to support the US in rejecting the UN's findings about attacks on civillians in the Gaza Conflict.
So let's not get into who is and who is not a terrorist eh?
An invasion of Iran will not happen. Nobodys going to stand up and say it but everybody knows it is true. Western powers have quite enough on their plates with Afghanistan and the casulties in attempting an invasion of Iran would be horrendous.
The only other option is limited strikes against known nuclear targets in Iran - but that risks significant retalliation.
Put together a major regional power with access to nuclear material, sophisticated armaments and potentially US and Britiish forces would be potentially vulnerable in places like Iraq and Afghanistan to attacks with chemical weapons or dirty bombs sourced from Iran.
Potentially even dirty bombs in London.
Given that you have to ask yourself - is an attack on Iran a good idea?
Are we willing to put Londoners in danger to protect Israel?
Twenty years ago Americans even sold arms to the Iranians to fund the Contra terrorists in Nicaragua.
Margaret Thatcher sold Hawk Fighters to Indonesia for use against the East Timorese - now an independent nation and supported Pinnocet who tortured and murdered thousands of his own people.
Right now the UK looks like it's about to support the US in rejecting the UN's findings about attacks on civillians in the Gaza Conflict.
So let's not get into who is and who is not a terrorist eh?
An invasion of Iran will not happen. Nobodys going to stand up and say it but everybody knows it is true. Western powers have quite enough on their plates with Afghanistan and the casulties in attempting an invasion of Iran would be horrendous.
The only other option is limited strikes against known nuclear targets in Iran - but that risks significant retalliation.
Put together a major regional power with access to nuclear material, sophisticated armaments and potentially US and Britiish forces would be potentially vulnerable in places like Iraq and Afghanistan to attacks with chemical weapons or dirty bombs sourced from Iran.
Potentially even dirty bombs in London.
Given that you have to ask yourself - is an attack on Iran a good idea?
Are we willing to put Londoners in danger to protect Israel?
It is unlikely that Iran would be attacked, at least for some time. If you look around for information on the internet you may see reference to the fact that for several years it has been common knowledge that Iran has about 20 nuclear devices of varying size, but nothing huge, and until recently not long range. Nuclear weapons have been portable for about 50 years now and so this was inevitable. Will terrorists get their hands on a nuclear weapon? Why do you think I live in Greenland!
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