ChatterBank1 min ago
Is a Troy landslide inevitable?
I'm not so sure.
The long term useless have a vested interest in Labour staying in power.
The vast number of people in public sector non-jobs created by Labour have a vested interest in them staying in power.
Most traditional labour voters will still vote labour
Tory voters, thinking a rout is inevitable, may not bother turning out.
The above is over-simplifying, but you get the point.
Opinions?
The long term useless have a vested interest in Labour staying in power.
The vast number of people in public sector non-jobs created by Labour have a vested interest in them staying in power.
Most traditional labour voters will still vote labour
Tory voters, thinking a rout is inevitable, may not bother turning out.
The above is over-simplifying, but you get the point.
Opinions?
Answers
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I think a lot depends on what happens in the economy in the next 8 months.
People talk a lot about this and that but they vote with their wallet.
There's a delicate Poker game going on with spending cuts - Everybody wants to spell out plans enough to be taken seriously but not too much that they'll make everybody think that they will be voting for a party that'll make them poor.
That's one reason why tax increases are not being widely talked about despite the fact that they will blatently be needed.
Traditional Tory and Labour voters do not win elections - it's the marginals.
You've also forgotten the UKIP factor. Lisbon may well be ratified shortly before an election and UKIP tends to split the Tory vote more than the Labour one.
Of course it's not just the "Long term useless" - people on invalidity benefit and those on the minimum wage also have a vested interest in keeping Osbourne out of Number 11
Right now though that's not enough. All eyes are on the economy
People talk a lot about this and that but they vote with their wallet.
There's a delicate Poker game going on with spending cuts - Everybody wants to spell out plans enough to be taken seriously but not too much that they'll make everybody think that they will be voting for a party that'll make them poor.
That's one reason why tax increases are not being widely talked about despite the fact that they will blatently be needed.
Traditional Tory and Labour voters do not win elections - it's the marginals.
You've also forgotten the UKIP factor. Lisbon may well be ratified shortly before an election and UKIP tends to split the Tory vote more than the Labour one.
Of course it's not just the "Long term useless" - people on invalidity benefit and those on the minimum wage also have a vested interest in keeping Osbourne out of Number 11
Right now though that's not enough. All eyes are on the economy
A Tory landslide is by no means a certainty.
A recent poll suggests that 40% of voters will vote Tory, 28% Labour and 19% Lib Dem. However, of course, that is not the whole story. General Elections are decided by “floating” voters. Most people in the north and inner cities will always vote Labour (even if the candidate were a tub of lard) and most in the shire counties and “nicer” areas of cities will vote Tory (even if the candidate was a block of concrete).
Whilst the long-term useless may have an interest in retaining a Labour government fortunately most of them are so useless as to be unable or unwilling to vote. Indeed many of them do not appear on the electoral register for fear of being traced for various matters.
Public sector workers – especially those in recently created non-jobs - are another matter. They know on which side their bread is buttered and will not wish to upset the apple cart. But even some of them must surely be sick to death of this joke which masquerades as the present government.
As usual the election will be decided by relatively few voters in a relatively small number of seats. Many voters in 1997 and the two subsequent elections switched their allegiance and voted Labour in the vain hope that “things would get better”. They obviously either never had, or had forgotten what it is like to live under any Labour government, let alone this one. Enough of them however may think that three terms is enough for anybody and that the electorate deserves a break from the bullying, intrusive expensive and often fruitless activities that we have all suffered over the last 12 years.
Let’s hope they do.
A recent poll suggests that 40% of voters will vote Tory, 28% Labour and 19% Lib Dem. However, of course, that is not the whole story. General Elections are decided by “floating” voters. Most people in the north and inner cities will always vote Labour (even if the candidate were a tub of lard) and most in the shire counties and “nicer” areas of cities will vote Tory (even if the candidate was a block of concrete).
Whilst the long-term useless may have an interest in retaining a Labour government fortunately most of them are so useless as to be unable or unwilling to vote. Indeed many of them do not appear on the electoral register for fear of being traced for various matters.
Public sector workers – especially those in recently created non-jobs - are another matter. They know on which side their bread is buttered and will not wish to upset the apple cart. But even some of them must surely be sick to death of this joke which masquerades as the present government.
As usual the election will be decided by relatively few voters in a relatively small number of seats. Many voters in 1997 and the two subsequent elections switched their allegiance and voted Labour in the vain hope that “things would get better”. They obviously either never had, or had forgotten what it is like to live under any Labour government, let alone this one. Enough of them however may think that three terms is enough for anybody and that the electorate deserves a break from the bullying, intrusive expensive and often fruitless activities that we have all suffered over the last 12 years.
Let’s hope they do.
To gain any majority will take the biggest swing since the 1930s. That will almost certainly happen, but swinging all the way to a landslide is another matter.
Now that Conservative policy is filtering through, it's open to scrutiny and attack. So they might suffer slightly in the opinion polls between now and then.
But they will win. As NJ says, people think three terms is enough. Over time, voters sway between being having a social conscience/being a handwringer and disliking big government/signing up to the devil-take-the-hindmost approach. At the moment, we're at the latter.
Now that Conservative policy is filtering through, it's open to scrutiny and attack. So they might suffer slightly in the opinion polls between now and then.
But they will win. As NJ says, people think three terms is enough. Over time, voters sway between being having a social conscience/being a handwringer and disliking big government/signing up to the devil-take-the-hindmost approach. At the moment, we're at the latter.
A Tory win is not yet inevitable, nevermind a landslide.
To overturn Labour's majority from the last election, the Tories need a huge swing from Labour to Conservative. A lead of about 12 points in the polls would translate to a win. The latest poll out today after the conferences have Labour advancing to 10 points behind. This probably wouldn't be enough for the Tories to win let alone get a landslide.
As the election campaign gets underway, the gap in the polls tends to narrow.
Cameron seems to have set his stall out for austerity and hard times. But they economy could improve in the next 8 months. The UK, US and Europe are pulling out of recession and good growth is predicted for the next year. If other confidence grows, then the electorate might be reluctant to vote for cuts, job losses and high income tax rises.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYRYoOMahWcU
To overturn Labour's majority from the last election, the Tories need a huge swing from Labour to Conservative. A lead of about 12 points in the polls would translate to a win. The latest poll out today after the conferences have Labour advancing to 10 points behind. This probably wouldn't be enough for the Tories to win let alone get a landslide.
As the election campaign gets underway, the gap in the polls tends to narrow.
Cameron seems to have set his stall out for austerity and hard times. But they economy could improve in the next 8 months. The UK, US and Europe are pulling out of recession and good growth is predicted for the next year. If other confidence grows, then the electorate might be reluctant to vote for cuts, job losses and high income tax rises.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYRYoOMahWcU
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