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Chambers Dictionary suggests J's answer is (quote) "perhaps" correct and Postdog's is (quote) "possibly" correct. The scholars of The Oxford English Dictionary, on the other hand, are more circumspect, claiming the origin is (quote) "unknown".
If you click here you will find that the noted etymologist and lexicographer Michael Quinion suspects, as I do, that these suggestions are just examples of folk etymology.
"We know what it means, but we don't know where it came from" would seem to be the answer.