Life Expectancy

[Bert45]

I just heard on the news that life expectancy in England has risen to its highest level ever. The newsreader said that a man now aged 65 could now expect to live to 84. What does this mean? Does it mean 50% of English men can expect to live to 84 (and beyond)? Or more like 95% of English men can expect to live to 84 and beyond?
And how do they arrive at this figure? Almost everyone who was born in 1916 is dead now, so they can work out the total life expectancy of someone born in 1916. Add all the ages at death of a sample of people born in 1916 together and divide by the number of people in the sample. But how do you do that for a sample of people born in 1951, as they are not all dead yet?

[fiction-factory]

It is relating just to men aged 65 now. I am not sure if it's mean or median expected age fof death for that category. The two figures will probably be very similar anyway

[fiction-factory]

You can find actuarial tables on line. They may have explanatory notes

[agchristie]

Don't read too much into it, life's too short ;)

[wired]

It means that the tax man will be taking more per capita for longer

[fiction-factory]

I think you can project by looking at the trends. I'll have a look after Coronation Street

[Old_Geezer]

It's true; I'm proof. I've never lived as long as this before !

Expectation is just that; expectation. No guarantees or we'd all be living forever.

I interpreted it as being that if you reach age xx then the majority go on to reach age yy

What it definitely means is more stats for those who wish to abuse the working population into working for longer before they get the pension they were promised years previously. More excuse for pension schemes to pay less and fail to cover needs which then will be paid for by the workers who are forced to work longer than agreed (or maybe insist on even more onerous payments in).

[fiction-factory]

So is it not good news then O_G? Surely someone has to pay for it if we want to afford meaningful pensions to the over 84s . Contributions were set when life expectancy was much lower.

[sandyRoe]

I think when Lloyd George introduced the pension for people aged 65 few lived to receive it.

[Old_Geezer]

As I've mentioned in past threads ff: there is a bill to society for keeping folk who aren't in work regardless whether it's labelled pension or some other welfare title. It's not an extra cost but simply a change of budget. In fact pensioning folk off earlier and getting younger folk into work instead should be beneficial, because pensions are supposed to cover the living costs of one individual, whereas a younger person could well be claiming for a whole family, when employed they support them from their salary. For sure longer lives mean more cost but that's not optional, barring Logan's Run law.

[wildwood]

I expect the '65' was mentioned to indicate that this only represents the men in that age group, as opposed to men of all ages. This is only an average as many will die earlier or later. The life expectancy of men who are 20 now, will be much longer as these now grow up in an more nutritiously informed and medically advanced Society.

They arrive at these figures by calculating the average, often ignoring the extremes. The present % of 65yo man now, is most likely to be in much better health than the 65yos were 50 years ago, so will be expected to live much longer.

[EDDIE51]

Good quiz here
http://www.quizrocket.com/when-will-i-die
It says I have 28 years left and will die at age 93.You can change details like where you live and see the effect on your life expectancy.

[EDDIE51]

Sorry that gave the wrong link do not see how it happened, here is the correct one
http://www.gotoquiz.com/special/when_will_i_die.html

[237SJ]

One week you read that life expecancy has risen and the next week, you read that this generation is the first generation that will die at a younger age than their parents. I believe the latter.

[EDDIE51]

^^ By 'this generation' it means people who are kids now,high sugar, high fat, fast food diet is mainly to blame.
We '1950 s Baby boomer's' will live longer than our Grand kids,due to our better diet.

[Prudie]

Yet I heard on the radio only last week that 30% of babies born today have a likelihood of reaching 100.

[Cloverjo]

Thanks for that link, Eddie. Very interesting, and somewhat sobering.

[237SJ]

Eddie`s link gives no idea as to how long one can expect to live as there are too many factors that are not taken into account.

[jno]

yes, baby boomers grew up with a good diet. Our parents grew up in the depression and didn't fare so well (several fo my father's family had TB and a couple died). Our children have grown with a dodgier diet (more sugar and junk food); on the other hand, you're more likely to see them in the gym or jogging so many actually take more care of their health.

[Bert45]

Wildwood: "They arrive at these figures by calculating the average, often ignoring the extremes. The present % of 65yo man now, is most likely to be in much better health than the 65yos were 50 years ago, so will be expected to live much longer." Very true, but they have put a number to it - 19 years. Not just "[they] will be expected to live longer." I'm trying to find out how they can arrive at a figure now, when all they can know is that X% of the people born in England 1949 (the prediction is based on 2014 data, I believe) had died by 2014. And how can we interpret the changes that immigration must have made to the calculation?

[Peter Pedant]

//... and the next week, you read that this generation is the first generation that will die at a younger age than their parents.//

I dont know where the poster has got this from
you can paraphrase this as:
and the next week you read some right ***.....

Life insurane is the invention of the late 1650s to 1700
and the first person paid to calculate life tables ( expectancy )
was ..... Isaac Newton .....

I wwill see what the interent says