Sunday Express Skeleton 22Nd December...
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Peak Oil?
Amidst all of the dire predictions about the oil running out, I have read that there are dates ranging from 2007 to 2025 given by futurologists for when we reach, "peak oil," after which demand outstrips supply.
What is the most accurate forecast for this?
What is the most accurate forecast for this?
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An accurate forecast is impossible to give, even an educated guess is grasping at straws.
One cause is the development in the Asian continent, mainly China. 10 years ago an ordinary chinese citizen with a car was a rarity, now it is not. Guessing how well the authorities can keep up with road building to service the ever increasing carpool is not an easy task, and this will govern how many cars will be using oil in the most populous nation on Earth. Other eastern countries such as Taiwan and Korea are also becoming much richer nations, thus becoming more oil demanding.
It is also unknown exactly how much oil there is in the Earth that could be used. The enormous quantities that were quoted as recent as 1990 are hard to find, if they are there.
As oil becomes scarser, and ofcourse dearer, alternative fuels will become more attractive.
One cause is the development in the Asian continent, mainly China. 10 years ago an ordinary chinese citizen with a car was a rarity, now it is not. Guessing how well the authorities can keep up with road building to service the ever increasing carpool is not an easy task, and this will govern how many cars will be using oil in the most populous nation on Earth. Other eastern countries such as Taiwan and Korea are also becoming much richer nations, thus becoming more oil demanding.
It is also unknown exactly how much oil there is in the Earth that could be used. The enormous quantities that were quoted as recent as 1990 are hard to find, if they are there.
As oil becomes scarser, and ofcourse dearer, alternative fuels will become more attractive.
The range of dates varies from 2005 i.e. we're already past the peak, to 2032 (US geological survey). The answers vary for a variety of reasons. There are disagreements on: how much oil there is in the ground, how the oil forms, how much can be extracted, what reserves various countries are sitting on, how depleted those reserves are. Some people base their figures on light sweet crude only, while others factor in tar sands, deep ocean oil, liquids from coal etc.
The inescapable fact though, is that we use about 28 billion barrels per year of the stuff (about 1 cubic mile). The age of cheap oil is rapidly ending and it's only going to be harder from now on unless we find a few more Saudi Arabias. Try www.peakoil.com or www.theoildrum. Some of the discussions are quite hair raising though. The sites attract a generally literate, scientific bunch with the odd survivalist or religious loony thrown in. Some of those making the most dire predictions are some of the geologists and engineers with the most detailed knowledge of the global oil industry.
The inescapable fact though, is that we use about 28 billion barrels per year of the stuff (about 1 cubic mile). The age of cheap oil is rapidly ending and it's only going to be harder from now on unless we find a few more Saudi Arabias. Try www.peakoil.com or www.theoildrum. Some of the discussions are quite hair raising though. The sites attract a generally literate, scientific bunch with the odd survivalist or religious loony thrown in. Some of those making the most dire predictions are some of the geologists and engineers with the most detailed knowledge of the global oil industry.
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