Do trolls stalk science at night?

[R1Geezer]

Look at my 2 posts below and tell, me have I explained the questioon badly or are there more than the average amount of numpty insomniacs stalking the section at night when they think the intelleigent people are not around. I'm having to do an overnight monitoring job so unusually for me I'm about at this time. I definately won't post any science questions at this time of night again.

[S_C]

oh well in that case ill have to wait to see your arguement on this question ..

night area109 .

[sara3]

wow, do you guys actually stay up to scrap through the night?

that's almost impressive ;o)

[beso]

Check out the newscientist website sometime. Some real nutters post there. If you are quick enough you can see some of it before the moderators take it down. Even the stuff that stays shows the author's remarkable commitment to the naivety.

[Quentin_Crisp]

It was posted at 02.37am docspock - maybe he was sleep-walking.

[Old_Geezer]

I'm not 100% certain but I think it is best if you draw second. In that position I figure you have a 16.7% chance of the draw not even getting to you, and an additional 80% chance of survival if it does; giving you the best odds.
But I probably have something wrong somewhere.

[wildwood]

I really can not see what the problem is R1. Providing the cylinder is only spun at the beginning of the game everyone has a 1/6 chance of getting a hole in one. The one that will get the second turn has the same chance as the first or third.
However after the first one had a go (and survives) the other 5s chances change drastically.

If the cylinder is spun every time between shots each participant's chance is 1/6 until one of them gets 'lucky'.

[Tim123]

The point is that once the order of firing has been established and the chamber has been spun, the person who is going to die has been absolutely and immutably decided. It is not decided when the bullet is fired.

If the bullet is ballanced by equal weight slugs in the other five chambers, your chance of dying is 1/6 and that's that. I you want maths, here goes (assuming that you don't have to carry on pulling the trigger once the bullet has been fired):

First person, Chance of having to pull trigger 1/1; chance of getting bullet 1/6; overall chance of death 1/6.
Second person, Chance of having to pull trigger 5/6; chance of getting bullet 1/5; overall chance of death 1/6.
Third person, Chance of having to pull trigger 4/6; chance of getting bullet 1/4; overall chance of death 1/6.
Fourth person, Chance of having to pull trigger 3/6; chance of getting bullet 1/3; overall chance of death 1/6.
Fifth person, Chance of having to pull trigger 2/6; chance of getting bullet 1/2; overall chance of death 1/6.
Last person, Chance of having to pull trigger 1/6; chance of getting bullet 1/1; overall chance of death 1/6.

But remember, these probablilities only actually exist up to the point that the chamber is spun and the fireing order is decided. After that point, the probability of death for one participant is 1 and for the other five it's zero, they just don't know who.

[chakka35]

Excellent analysis, Tim.

[Toureman]

I have not seen any, this is what they look like..............

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll