Coronavirus

[RayH]

They say that if we do nothing then 500,000 people will die.
Here is an extract from an article on the BBC website...

Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales: factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure tops 600,000.

The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths. In short, they would have died anyway.

[aelmpvw]

that's comforting ...

[Zacs-Master]

‘ Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths’

Do you have any proof of that?

[jno]

I thought that was wrong when I read the story this morning.

The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this

Some will be on top of it and some won't - as it says in the very next sentence *Many* would be within the normal number. But many also will not be. That is, some people will die of coronavirus who otherwise would have lived to next year.

The problem is that we don't know how many, because they haven't crunched those particular figures.

[jno]

ZM, that's a quote from the story

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

[steg]

My mums 85, if she gets it she will most likely die. If she doesn’t get it she could live another 10 years +

I’m not putting her or anybody else at risk if I can help it

[jno]

you're not sending her to Tescos with your want list, steg? You're a good lad.

[Zacs-Master]

I still think there’s a lot of obfuscation happening

[woofgang]

I am also not sure if they have included "knock on deaths" in the modelling and it doesn't say. By this I mean the people who would have survived something else because it would have been treated who don't get the same level of care because people who would have remained healthy without COVID catch it and spread it and increase the need for NHS resources. Garbled but does that make sense?

[teacake44]

I suppose there's nothing wrong with some self comfort.

[woofgang]

ZM obfuscation of what and who by?

[jno]

that's what the BBC story in the lilnk is trying to sort out, ZM. As woofgang says, there are still elements missing from the figures, but I don't know that any deliberate obfuscation is involved, people are just doing their best to crunch the available numbers. Things like "he died with coronavirus but did he die of coronavirus?" are probably incalculable.

[Zacs-Master]

Obfuscation of the truth. The BBC article is neither definitive nor conclusive. It’s impossible for it to be so until this is over.

[steg]

jno //you're not sending her to Tescos with your want list, steg? You're a good lad.//

Well not till she’s been to the bookies and then gets the carryoot fae the offy..... priorities come first in state of crisis

[jno]

I was thinking you could give her a sharp stick and then send her along to the supermarket Wrinklies Hour after opening to get your list. Do they have an over-70s hour at the bookies? (I suppose if they did she'd only be able to back old horses.)

[woofgang]

I don't think that's so much deliberate obfuscation as trying to state the facts

[Cloverjo]

Are the bookies still open? There’s no racing on.

[jno]

they're probably taking bets on which raindrop gets to the bottom of the window pane first.

[TonyV]

Clover think there is Ireland.

[RayH]

The bookies are closed...
There is no point closing everything, eventually we will all get it and most of us will survive.

[Ken4155]

Betting shops are closed as there is no UK racing. However, Ireland have been granted one meeting per day behind closed doors.