How Do They Do That ....?

[KARL]

There has been quite a bit of discussion as to how well the UK and other countries are doing regarding the pandemic. This link may be of interest as to what so far are the most successful approaches - which then serve as explanations of where failures have occurred (differences in perception/mindset/approach/culture being important, hence the choice of category for this post):
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_content=2020-04-16T06%3A31%3A02&utm_source=fbCNNi&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1DhI5u28AGyLnUABGF5YXGOryPjaxnG-iP1TH9jiUvM5EBBYPGsMrcdk8

[Zacs-Master]

Citing CNN as a basis for accurate debate is like asking the tooth fairy to sponsor Colgate.

[Zacs-Master]

If you want the most up to date facts try either of these:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[jno]

an interesting read. No two pandemics are quite the same; no two countries are, either. So they'll all be improvising as they go. Britain has the advantage of being an island nation and the disadvantage of being a fairly crowded one - and yet Taiwan, broadly similar but the great disadvantage of heing just off China, covid central, has done a lot better.

I hope lessons are being learnt for the next pandemic

[Zacs-Master]

The CNN article ignores population density, population distribution (percentages of people in cities vs countryside), transport infrastructure and the fact we have an NHS run on a tight budget.

Lessons will be learned but let’s not use hindsight to criticise people (politicians and health workers) who are trying to cope with an unprecedented set of circumstances.

Germany currently has the fourth highest number of cases in the world so how they can be used as a paragon is baffling.

[jno]

Germany has had 45 deaths per million, in spite of being the second most heavily populated country in Europe (after Russia) and having land borders almost all the way round. The UK, in spite of being an island, has 190. So yes, there are reasons to look at what they've been doing.

[Spicerack]

not a good time to extol Germany.

[Zacs-Master]

Whichever way you cut it, jno, they’re still fourth highest in the world which would preclude me from citing them as any kind of example in showing ‘how do they do that’.

[drmorgans]

A couple of factors; failing to learn the lessons from recent pandemics, MERS and SARS. Health care spending; about 2/3rd of what Germany and France spend.

[Zacs-Master]

As I said, we have an NHS on a tight budget.

[NickorWan]

Re Zacs at 13:08, you could argue that a very high number of cases with a very low death rate is the best position of all to be in.

[jno]

ZM, counting the number of cases is a highly inexact science. The more people you test, the more cases you'll find; and Germany's been testing a lot.

Even counting the dead isn't a perfect metric, but I think it's a better guide to how a country is responding to the pandemic - and how safe its citizens will feel. Basically, any given Briton is four times as likely to die from covid-19 as a German is. There may be many reasons for this but we need to study all of them.

[Zacs-Master]

There are undoubtedly many reasons. That’s the exact point I’m making when I said the CNN article ignores most of these when citing the countries it did.

[fiction-factory]

I can't immediately think of any reason why the past/recent NHS budget has had any significant bearing on this other than perhaps initial stocks of some PPE. The budget/money doesn't seem to have been an issue since the start of Covid- the issues seem to have been lack of PPE and more importantly testing (poor planning and organisation rather than money has been the limiting factor ), and perhaps the delays in introducing social distancing and the lockdown. Other factors include the population density in London, the age profile and perhaps the levels of scepticism of some groups who feel they are not vulnerable or feel this is some sort of false war /conspiracy. While some say we were too slow to lock down others (including a few ABers) say we should never have done it and should carry on as normal

[Zacs-Master]

‘ other than perhaps initial stocks of some PPE’

That’s a pretty damn big ‘other’, ff.

[fiction-factory]

But did anyone see the need for big stocks of PPE? I'm sure couple of billion extra on PPE could have been found from the existing huge NHS budget of £140Billion a year if people had planned the expenditure properly. I don't remember anyone saying in December that hospitals were short of PPE. With hindsight of course we know they needed some big stocks in reserve but at the time would an extra couple of billion on the budget have gone on spare masks or been spent on operations?

[jno]

they've been missing chances to get PPE more recently, though, ff. "Outdated email address".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/uk-missed-three-chances-to-join-eu-scheme-to-bulk-buy-ppe

[Zacs-Master]

I see we’ve gone into ‘hindsight’ mode.

[fiction-factory]

Yes jno. That's what I said- poor planning and organisation. Shambolic at times, I think we'll find later. That sort of confirms my point that I don't think money has been the issue.

[KARL]

Another expression for hindsight is "learning from experience". That "every country is different" is of course quite true but it can also lead to very wrong/bad conclusions - in the discussion about and analysis of events surrounding the pandemic it and the details arising/emerging from/within that premise too often contain a long list excuses. If you have only an old and leaky bucket to resort to when a fire is discovered.....do you say that is because nobody expected a fire bigger than a lit candle, there was no room for a good bucket, or perhaps leap into another narrative and shout from the ruins that you knew all along that a fire would happen and that you are the best fire fighter ?

[KARL]

Here's another discussion of what does and does not work and a little about why:
https://youtu.be/Sp8pkVtLi1k