Covid19 - How Many Constitutes A ‘Spike’?

[naomi24]

I see figures for new infections bandied about - 50 in 100,000 for example - which isn’t a high percentage - so I wonder what the government considers a ‘Spike’ warranting the imposition of further lockdowns?

[fiction-factory]

I'm nor sure there is a fixed threshold for infection rates but certainly there are league tables so maybe one think they look at is the top 50 areas or something like that. Also in the spike areas the numbers have often doubled or trebled in a short space of time. I feel we are overreacting to some increases but I suppose it's better to be safe than be sorry when the deaths spike

[naomi24]

FF, I know there are league tables but there must be an official yardstick - surely?

[lankeela]

I think the local lockdowns are more in response to an increase of cases rather than number of deaths.

[naomi24]

lankeela, the OP is about new infections.

[New Judge]

Little, if anything, that the government does in response to this disease seems to make any sense.

Bradford was among the first areas to be subject to local measures because the infection rate had "shot up". It had gone from 35 cases per 100,000 people to 45 cases per 100,000 people. Back on 21 June, when the Prime Minister decided he would re-open the pubs (including those in Bradford) the infection rate there was 72 per 100,000 people.

[Ken4155]

In the week we were 'locked down' in Burnley, we had had 4 new cases! It was suggested by someone on these pages that because Blackburn & Darwen had such a high case rate, and had been locked down, their Muslim civilians who could not visit their Blackburn relatives during Eid, would cross the 'border' into surrounding areas, such as Burnley? And that's the only reason we were shut down, apparently.

[ParsleyDumpling]

I think it is in response to a doubling or more of positive tests, rather than an increase in hospital admissions or certainly deaths. I would have thought that was a good thing? I do believe that local authorities are using the threat of lockdown as a punishment for people trying to get back to some sort of normality. The ONS seems to think that Covid 19 has 'found its level', as the number of cases per thousand is remaining stable, or even decreasing (if I understood their findings correctly). I don't see it as a good thing, though, because, as Naomi points out there doesn't appear to be a standard of criteria to meet. Each area is doing its own thing.

[Peter Pedant]

er a large blip

this sounds a bit like the argument over Paralus - the sacred trireme of athens - take away a plank ( and take it to the beach ) and replace. Clearly still paralus - so do it again and again
and now at the end - two paralus - [paraloi probably, or paralw].
and which one is the original paralus ?

can also do it with the True Cross - and get enough to build a ship and sail to Compostela

and so widda blip of covid ( but add and dont replace )
( and the blip becomes a spike - but no one knows when)

sozza if these ideas sound gobbledooky
but based on Plato - and we dont hear much about HIM on AB !
https://faculty.washington.edu/smcohen/320/theseus.html

[Peter Pedant]

// Little, if anything, that the government does in response to this disease seems to make any sense.//

o god I thought the Boris support club wd be singing his Aryan praises - and I dont think he [Boris that is!] is going badly
some clearly dont work - masks -
and some do but at too great a cost - lock down

so it has to come down to a chocco box of we do a little of this and a little of that and cut back when r creeps over one

and as long as one is careful
and not make a real cack up like Beirut,
it should be OK

[woofgang]

PP I could have quoted Washington's Axe or Trigger's Broom but this is more poetic and sundayish

The Old Ships

I have seen old ships sail like swans asleep
Beyond the village which men still call Tyre,
With leaden age o'ercargoed, dipping deep
For Famagusta and the hidden sun
That rings black Cyprus with a lake of fire;

And all those ships were certainly so old -
Who knows how oft with squat and noisy gun,
Questing brown slaves or Syrian oranges,
The pirate Genoese
Hell-raked them till they rolled
Blood, water, fruit and corpses up the hold.

But now through friendly seas they softly run,
Painted the mid-sea blue or shore-sea green,
Still patterned with the vine and grapes in gold.

But I have seen,
Pointing her shapely shadows from the dawn,
An image tumbled on a rose-swept bay,
A drowsy ship of some yet older day;
And, wonder's breath indrawn,
Thought I - who knows - who knows - but in that same
(Fished up beyond Aeaea, patched up new
- Stern painted brighter blue -)
That talkative, bald-headed seaman came
(Twelve patient comrades sweating at the oar)
From Troy's doom-crimson shore,
And with great lies about his wooden horse
Set the crew laughing, and forgot his course.

It was so old a ship - who knows, who knows?
- And yet so beautiful, I watched in vain
To see the mast burst open with a rose,
And the whole deck put on its leaves again.

James Elroy Flecker

[jim360]

I'd like to think that the Government has access to data that we haven't, so maybe there's a logic to imposing rapid lockdowns, based on what appear to be few cases, because they have seen signs of exponential trajectory. But I don't believe this is the case. If we take the number of new daily national cases as gospel, then there has been a month of slow linear increase. I do not see this as indicative of local exponential spikes either, but rather local flare-ups that soon settle.

Moreover, there's been no sign of this translating, as far as I can see, into an increase in severe cases, hospitalisations and deaths. It's possible -- indeed, likely -- that if we relaxed still further to the point of no restrictions at all, then there *would* be a new flare-up. But I would agree with NJ that, right now, the Government seems to be setting too low a threshold for pressing the local lockdown "panic button".

[woofgang]

I would suggest not just number of new cases but the speed of the increase and tracking info i.e. who infected who and where.

[HansUrbancka]

At last PP has said something I can comprehend......." cut back when r creeps over one ".

However, it appears to me that the Government and its Scientific Advisers can make the 'R' rate whatever they wish in order to prove a point. Furthermore, it's very confusing when we are given information such as....."Scientists work backwards to estimate the R rate, as we can’t know the exact moment people are infected."

I have endeavoured, with little success,to fully understand the following article :-

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11421682/what-r-rate-uk-coronavirus/

Hans.

[woofgang]

can I suggest that once R has crept over 1 and we know it, its too late?

[ichkeria]

I don’t think so.
It’s easier to control local outbreaks. The “R” figure is largely meaningless nationally as it varies so much from place to place or seems to

[KARL]

A spike is more likely to be defined by an acceleration in the rate of new infections in a defined area rather than a numerical count. Such an increase, when projected forward in time, will appear as a threat and prompt thoughts of hindering the development rather than let it proceed/accelerate further unabated. Doing nothing will at some stage become untenable as cases of serious illness pile up. Much talk has been made of "the Swedish approach", both inside and outside Sweden. Outside Sweden it is seen by some as the way to go, inside Sweden it is heavily criticised and their CMO has conceded that the approach should perhaps have been different - it is seen as having been very costly in a country where life is not cheap. Part of the Swedish approach has been the "over to you" aspect where people have had to either take personal control or else let whatever happen. Particular Swedish characteristics have mitigated the potentially worst case outcome but it seems to be generally accepted that, in less developed countries with a daily culture that consistently involves closer contact at much higher frequency together with a less reliable co-operative reaction toward advice, this model would be little more than abandonment of any attempt to stem the rise in rates of infection and death. The accepted conclusion is that, together with other countries, the UK is not suitable for such an experiment.

[youngmafbog]

I doubt very much the Government has any idea. HanCock and Johnson just react to what Witless says - and he is treating England as a giant lab.

[Zacs-Master]

More of a mongrel.

[fiction-factory]

>I think the local lockdowns are more in response to an increase of cases rather than number of deaths.

Hi, if that was in response to my reference to spikes in deaths, I was trying to say that monitoring infection rates puts you ahead of the game and whilst it sometimes may be an overreaction it is probably being better than simply monitoring deaths

[fiction-factory]

YMB- I know you don't like Johnson and Hancock which is fair enough but your regular emphasis of the COCKpart of his name is childish