Stealing Money (?) - 7

[Ken4155]

England's opening game in the 2022 World Cup is against Iran. We are ranked 5th in the world, Iran 20th. The two sides have never met and it has to be said that Iran's preparation, in terms of actual results, appears to be better than England's - our winless run stretches back to March with 3 defeats and 3 draws, scoring just 4 goals (3 of those in the 3-3 draw with Germany). However, when compared, the level of opposition England have faced is higher than that Iran have faced.

Despite the poor form, the heat and the weight of expectation, i expect us to win our opener. So why the question mark? Well, the poor form, the heat and the weight of expectation :-)

We are around the 1/3 mark to win but Willy Hill are offering EVENS to a max stake of £10. The reason i am putting this up now (the game isn't played until Monday) is because i don't know when the offer will be withdrawn.

[ToraToraTora]

ken what was the price on 6-2 ?

[Ken4155]

Haven't a Scooby, TTT, i never looked that far. I was going to go 2-0 but it was only 9/2.

Just thrown a couple of quid at Netherlands to win 2-1 @ 9/1 for a bit of interest:-)

[Ken4155]

England were 2/7, France are 2/7 to beat Australia and 150/1 to win 6-2 so i would guess we were the same price.

[ToraToraTora]

I would have thought off the top of my head that 6-2 would be at least double carpet possibly 40-1. A very rare score indeed.

[Ken4155]

The price of the correct score is usually determined by the sp of the favoured team.

[ToraToraTora]

....of course but also the likelihood of the score in question and 6-2 is rare, much rarer than say 6-0 for for example.

[Ken4155]

Which is probably why it's 150/1. Wonder if anyone actually did it :-)

I have a mate who always backs ridiculous scores, but even he wouldn't be foolish enough to go 6-2 in any game.

[ZebuSanctuary]

// wouldn't put a tenner on a 1/3 shot. //

Why not?

These odds are as good as any high street building society savings account.

In addition, should your selection 'come up', you don't have to wait a year to collect!

[THECORBYLOON]

A couple of folk had staked £10 with William Hill at odds of 200-1 and another had £9 with the same odds but cashed out early for £14.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/20499535/william-hill-200-1-england-iran-bet-nightmare/

[royfromaus]

Anyone who bets on a team to win 6-2 is not a serious gambler.

I had 500 on the game @1/2 to have over 1.5 goals.

250 on the game having over 2.5 goals...proper stealing money...why chase ridiculous scores/odds?

[Ken4155]

Zebu, "Why not?"

Because i don't back odds on.

Roy, where did you get 1/2 for over 1.5 goals? Both France and Germany are around the same price as England were to win their games and over 1.5 is 2/9 France and 1/5 Germany.

[THECORBYLOON]

"why chase ridiculous scores/odds?"

Perhaps it's because ridiculous scores happen once in a while and the chance of winning £2,000 is worth a £10 bet?

[THECORBYLOON]

ZEBU, looking at the figures from this website,
https://www.flatstats.co.uk/starting-price-stats.php
if you had bet on all the horses in flat races with odds of 1/3 running in the UK from 1.1.12 to 19.11.22, you'd have been 8.8% down.

[ZebuSanctuary]

Corby >01.22

Notwithstanding those small independent turf accountants that have gone bust over the years, the stats certainly bolster the old adage... 'The bookie always wins'.

There is certainly no arguing with the data!

Examining Ken's betting strategy not to back 'odds on', would be not have had better returns, than say placing bets at 20/1 ?

Had a gambler backed all of those horses that ran on the flat at 20/1 over the same period, then would it be correct to assume the punter would be more than 8.8% down?

[royfromaus]

Betfair.
France 1/3 over 1.5 goals

Germany 1/4 over1.5 goals

[Ken4155]

Zebu, i am a 'fun' punter; small stakes, often multiple bets, and drawn to large field handicaps where the chances of choosing the winner are much less, true, but the satisfaction much sweeter when i do. Plus the bigger the field, often the bigger the price. Backing odds-on is for those who rock up at racecourses with satchels full of readies, imho :-)
And, as i proved on Sunday, if your first 3 selections of a multiple win, the 'cash-out' offer is sometimes well worth considering. In my case, £500.48 for a £5 stake.
Put money in a savings account and, economic crashes notwithstanding, you are guaranteed a return. Not so with gambling. I've seen horses turned over at 1/14.

[royfromaus]

Just checked my betfair, Ken and the actual odds were 1.47 over 1.5 goals.

2.46 over 2.5 goals.

[Ken4155]

I don't hold a Betfair account, Roy. Looks as if i may have to have a look at opening one.

[Ken4155]

"I've seen horses turned over @ 14/1.

Not to mention football teams @ 1/9 - KSA 2 Argentina 1 :-))

[ZebuSanctuary]

// In my case, £500.48 for a £5 stake.//

Satisfaction guaranteed when that comes up. Drool!

// I've seen horses turned over at 1/14 //

Unbelievable! Testimony to the fact there's no such thing as a dead cert.

Saudi result reinforces that fact. What a game though!