Saturday Punt - 19 Mar 2022

[Ken4155]

In terms of quality, it is definitely a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' but there are a few decent sized handicaps for me to get my teeth and slide-rule into. Including the Midlands National in which the betting is headed by last year's winner Time To Get Up. Pipe won this 4 years on the spin during 2011 - 2014 and runs 3. Old favourite Yala Enki bids to stick not one, but two fingers up to the stats by becoming the oldest winner since Knock Hill in '88, carrying the most weight to victory ever. Considering he is giving 10lbs to the rest of the field, my guess is that Nicholls has put him in the race to guarantee some pace to assist his other runner, Trucker's Lodge, the 2020 winner.
Today's ITV7 consists of 4 races from Uttoxeter (1st leg 1.50), 2 from Kempton and 1 from Newcastle.

[pat2604]

This is not an answer, but caught in traffic yesterday due to a accident very near the entrance to the race course just across the fields from us, I thought of you!! I just wondered whether you might be there! Beautiful sunny day in North Norfolk!! Just saying......

I've never visited this category before! I didn't know racing and betting was so complicated!!

[Togo]

Getting on early Ken. Looks like the garden centre scouting trip has been brough forward in anticipation of the weather showing promise for next week. The meeting at "Ucheter" was always one that emptied the estate in the 60s and 70s. It was our day out, I used to travel from Wales after I had moved. ITV7 and the usual punts. Win Trixie⁕⁕⁕. E/W Acca, Trebles, and Doubles****. Good Luck to all.

Welsh Saint @9/1 1.50Utt*
Fuji Flight @7/2 2.25Utt⁕
Dawn Raider @10/3 2.33New⁕
Brief Times @9/1 2.40Kem*
Red Risk @10/1 3.00Utt*
Manofthemountain @6/1 3.15Kem⁕
Truckers Lodge @9/1 3.35Utt*

[Togo]

Yes Pat ... you need brains to lose your money well, and with resigned acceptance. :))

[pat2604]

LOL Togo!!

[Ken4155]

Pat, thanks to the internet and all the information it brings, we punters can now back a better class of loser. The horses me and Togo back don't end up as substitutes for donkeys on Blackpool beach, but as 'pony' rides for little Henry and Henrietta Ponsonby-Smythe:-)

[goodgoalie]

Did anyone win the £500,000 ITV 7 yesterday? Today's is a generous £100,000

[Ken4155]

Talking of losers, the beautiful animals i've chosen today will hopefully not fit into that category - fingers, toes, eyes and legs crossed.

Because the stats have held up quite well during the week at Cheltenham, i am sticking rigidly to them (though meaningful stats are quite sparse today) which means i cannot have Trucker's Lodge nor last year's winner entering the winners enclosure after the 3.35 - no back to back winners and no horse has ever 'recaptured' it's crown (now watch them finish 1-2:-/).

2.40 Kem; Dorking Boy @ 9/1 - 6 places (Rev f/c Jay Jay Reilly)
3.00 Utt; Panic Attack @ 7/1 - 4 places
3.15 Kem; Manofthemountain @ 5/1 - 4 places
4.50 New; Kajaki @ 15/2

Win singles, 20p Lucky 15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = £38, 4 winners = £6,214.

No Word Of A Lie, Young Dev and Rapid Raider in a Patent and e.w. Treble for a poss £902. (plus 3 x £2 win singles).

£1 e.w. Gwencily Berbas @ 25/1 - 7 places

ITV7; Above qualifiers plus Docpickedme and Broomfield Kan. £1 e.w. acca which would hit the limit :-))

[Ken4155]

GG, there were 12 people with all 7 winners so the 'tie-break' was used and just one winner, a guy named Jordan Reynolds, scooped the 1/2 Million pounds.

[goodgoalie]

Ach well good luck to him - I didn't pick a single winner!

[goodgoalie]

Ken - Do you try to be 'scientific' when choosing the tie-break, or just put something random?

[Ken4155]

GG, don't know about being 'scientific, but i do tend to opt for a greater margin of victory over the sticks than i do on the level. That said, if i'm in the running after the Midlands National, i hope the winning distance is just a length :-))
Billaway's winning distance was just a neck and i don't think i'd ever choose that in a jumps race.

[Togo]

Don't know about Ken GG but I take into account the distance and race type. 5 furlongs sprintsrarely have 5 length winners ,and 4 mile chases have few dead heats or winnrs by a nose.

[Togo]

Crossed posts Ken but similar "sentiments".

[goodgoalie]

Yes Togo, that's my reasoning too

[Ken4155]

As i (belatedly) said on yesterday's Cheltenham thread, must have been sickening for the 11 who lost out on the tie-break:-((

[Togo]

Yes GG ... but the 3 of us would have lost out on yesterdays tie break by that reckoning. Glad I didn't get the 7 up (^_*)

[goodgoalie]

What was the winning distance?

[Ken4155]

Yeah, Togo, but i'd have had the consolation of the £1 e.w. acca:-)

[Ken4155]

GG, a neck!

[goodgoalie]

Blimey - I would NEVER put that in a jumps race! Gone for 2 1/2 lengths today