2023 Aintree Festival - 13Th To 15Th April

Ken4155 | 09:09 Thu 13th Apr 2023 | Other Sports

43 Answers

It's that time of the year again when, in 2 days hence, millions of once-a-year punters will be invading betting shops, up and down the country, holding up the queue at the counter by getting the shop manager to help them write their betting slips out - leaving seasoned punters disgruntled 'cos they can't get to the counter to get their 'dog' bets on. And, of course, once the greyhounds have run their race, those disgruntled punters will screw their slips up in disgust, muttering how they would have been on the winner :-/

The Aintree meeting provides 5 of today's ITV7 races (first leg 2.20) with Taunting making up the numbers.

Easter Monday Punt - 10 April 2023

Midweek Punt - 19 April 2023

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Ken4155

Question Author

This NH season not been too shabby for me, either, Togo. Plenty of small profits made (from little acorns, etc) and 3 or 4 quite decent returns. Hope the flat is as generous:-)
Up to just a few years ago, i had my 'National' horses sorted almost a week before the event. Haven't even looked at the full field, yet, but i will put that right tonight after i've watched 'Boro and Norwich draw, with BTTS, @ 15/4:-)

Togo

Just drawn Galvin in the Skybet sweep. One of Elliot's runners. Thing is I have taken a shine to one of his other runners. Hmm.

Ken4155

Question Author

You just reminded me to get mine, Togo. Wish i hadn't bothered:-/

Cape Gentleman @ 100/1 - 7 year old, all best form at 2m4f and shorter, and last run was 66 days ago.

That's 3 Xs against some of the race's stronger stats:-(

Togo

Haha Ken. Now come on ... you know it gets a tiny E/W punt. Could be the next Foinavon.

Togo

I am also looking, just looking for now, at the female trainers Lucinda Russel and Venitia Williams runners. Both, like the lovely Jenny Pitman, know how to prep a horse long term and our Scottish lassie is in tremendous form at the moment. Apple Away today being a very good example. She has spent all year getting that mare ready with a stealthy campaign. Wonder if she will go chasing, she did win a Point to Point.

Ken4155

Question Author

Just spent over an hour and a half sifting through the stats, the strongest of which are;

27 of last 31 winners had won a chase over 3m or further.
27/31 had won no more than 6 chase handicaps.
23/31 winners were aged 9 or over- but no older than 12.
Noble Yeats bucked a trend last year when winning as a 7yo - a feat not accomplished since 1940.
Just 1 of the last 20 winners carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory.
Runners that have fallen or unseated at least 3 times in their career often do not run well in the National.

Using a quite Draconian 'two strikes and you're out' method, i've ended up with a list of just 4 horses which meet all, or all bar one of those above stats.

Longhouse Poet @ 20/1
Back On The Lash @ 20/1
Eva's Oskar @ 50/1
Francky Du Berlais @ 100/1

I will sleep on it and make a decision on which to select as my main bet tomorrow. I will also most likely go on my gut reaction and choose another i think will run well irrespective of the stats.

klazomaniac

Just put my first bet on for the National 'Gabbys cross' 63/1
I'll have a few other bets tomorrow when i get chance to study whats running throughout the day.
Good luck to all :-)

Ken4155

Question Author

Same to you, Klaz. Backing the National winner is 90% good luck, and 10% extremely good luck:-)

klazomaniac

Good trainer in very bizarre days. At 63/1 It's worth a go as much as any in the most unpredictable race of the year.
Never been successful (really) on National day. Went once about 5 years ago and it cost me a fortune. But a good day out nevertheless :-)

Ken4155

Question Author

I went in the early 80s. Could just about get a bet on, almost impossible to get served with a beer and saw very little of the race itself. I much prefer the mid-week meetings at the smaller tracks.
That was the year i decided it was best watched in the comfort of one's home - or the pub:-)

Ken4155

Question Author

Again there are 5 from Aintree in the ITV with Chepstow making the numbers up. The first leg is the 2.25 Aintree and the '7' culminates with the simple task of choosing correctly which of the 40 runners will be ahead at the finishing post, after 4 miles + and 30 fences to be jumped, in the 5.15. Simples, eh?

Ken4155

Question Author

I've chosen Coragh Rambler (£5 win @ 10s) as my 'gut-feeling' runner. Had i not been so Draconian, it would have been on the shortlist.
Of the '4' shortlisted runners, Longhouse Poet ran well for a long way in this last year, maybe a little too keenly, and finished a well-beaten 6th. A year older = a year wiser, hopefully as he is my next 'main' selection with £2.50 e.3w. @ 22/1 (Free £5 bet - Sky) to 7 places.
Back On The Lash @ 20s, Eva's Oskar @ 50s and Francky Du Berlais @ 100/1, all carry a £1 e.w. bet, all to 7 places.

Ken4155

Question Author

2.25 Ain; Outlaw Peter @ 10/1 - 7 places (25% boost on win single)
3.20 Yar; Angle Land @ 4/1
4.15 Ain; Kinondo Kwetu @ 14/1 - 5 places
4.30 Yar; Phoenix Star @ 4/1 - 4 places

Win singles, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £30, 4 winners = poss £4,450.

2.05 Yar; Moon Over The Sea @ 7/1
3.00 Ain; You Wear It Well @ 8/1
3.35 Ain; Marie's Rock @ 4/1 - 4 places

3 x £2 wins, 50p Patent, .75p e.w, treble (with WH) £1 e.w. treble with Sky. 3 placed = poss £18, 3 winners = poss £899.

ITV7; above qualifiers, plus My Girl Katie, Walk In The Wild and Coragh Rambler. I have done a £1 e.w. acca the 7, then taken the National runner out (for obvious reasons) and had a £1 e.w. acca the 6.

And the very best of luck to all punters - even the 'once-a-year' brigade. :-)

Ken4155

Question Author

Forgot to mention, Togo, i haven't done an e.w. on the horse i drew in the Sky Sweepstake, but my 'Scratch Of The Day' with WH gave me Recite A Prayer in their Sweepstake. Unlike Cape Gentleman, this one is the right age and meets other criteria - plus it's a Mullins horse - so i've had a tickle e.w. @ 80s :-)

Togo

It is done and I have put my bets on. Beautiful day up here and I am busy with planting on and sowing some late seeds. Big tidy up operation as well after being only half focused last year. Will be all done to watch the most watched race on British TV later, the second most watched being the replay. I have done a few singles in the Nat itself ... Delta Work(in my ITV&) Corach Rambler from the Lucinda Russel and Peter Scudamore yard after they obliged yesterday, and Galvin. "She who must be obeyed", has gone Sam Brown, Cloudy Glen and Le Milos. ITV7 done and ****Win Acca, Trebles and Doubles. ### E/W Trixie. Will do a scattering of F/casts and Tricasts from the Nat. runners later. Good luck to all.

Good Time Jonny @8/1 2.25A#
Our Bill's Aunt @11/2 2.35CH*
Hermes Allen @7/2 3.00A*
Grizzly James @7/2 3.10CH*
Home By the Lee @4/1 3.35A*
Eldorado Allen @9/1 4.15A#
Delta Work @9/1 5.15A#

Togo

Might do it myself then Ken. (^_*)

Have you seen the very nice piece in the Mail racing pages about Corach Rambler? When I saw it this morning and after yesterday, and my late comment about "Lady" trainers, I had to be on.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-11974213/Secrets-Corach-Rambler-17-000-horse-money-Grand-National.html

Ken4155

Question Author

If i hadn't backed CR, Togo, i woud've done after treading that. I know most trainers think their horses have what it takes, but as she says, she's trained a National winner and knows the time of day.