What's A Good Place To Look For Weather Conditions This Winter?

[AB Editor]

Morning all,

I wondered where you might look to find very long range forecasts - for example, if I want to know if this December is likely to be very cold, or just cold?

Is there anywhere online which offers this kind of service?

[grasscarp]

Meteorlogical office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range

[AB Editor]

Looks like the right place - but their site is a mess - can you help me find a comparison of this coming Winter to the one just gone?

[heathfield]

Strange. The Met Office stopped issuing long range forecasts some months ago after complaints that they were so often wrong as to be a waste of time. Watching their daily forecasts on BBC TV, you can see the predictions changing from one hour to the next, so how can they say what's going to happen in three months time?

[AB Editor]

So they don't actually offer long-range forecasts any longer?

[TheOtherHalf]

Have you asked Mystic O ??

[237SJ]

A friend of mine uses metcheck for weather trends but as with all of the sites, they are not very accurate because no long term weather forecast is.

[murraymints]

You could ask Slappy....he's in Falklands at the moment but pops in the morning thread......he's a met office weatherman ! ....oh Slappy is a weatherman a weatherman a weatherman.....Slappy is a weatherman.....and so is Michael fish..

[bibblebub]

It doesn't provide long term forecasts but if you want to see the weather records for the the last year (or a lot longer) and compare them with the upcoming averages then you could have a look at http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;ws=30954 - set your location at the top and you can increase the timescale by left-clicking and dragging on one side of the control near bottom.

[heathfield]

Play it safe, Ed. Carry a shovel in your car! Here's what the Met Office say about their long range forecasts...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2010/forecasts-change

[andy-hughes]

It's very tricky to predict weather for a small land mass like ours - which is why they have opted to stop, and stgop being wrong in the process.

The USA of course can do it accurately quite far into the future - but that's just geography for you.

[jno]

andy's right - a huge landmass on one side, a huge ocean on the other and to the north as well; anything can happen, and sometimes several of them do all at once. The Met Office can't even tell me what the weather's like now (because it'll be different a mile away), let alone three months from now.

[AB Editor]

It's less that I want to know the long range forecast, and more that I want know what someone like the Met office says.

[boxtops]

^Pardon?

Met office said a while ago that it's not possible these days to offer accurate longer-range forecasts.

[AB Editor]

As in, I don't care about the accuracy, more than I'd just like to know if it could be classified as "cold" or "Bloody freezing" for example... compared to last year.

[boxtops]

Ah! - I see - you want to know if you should buy the woolly drawers now, before they get snapped up!

[bednobs]

if you don't care about accuracy, why even bother? My long rage forecast is balmy sun. There you go!
PS you title made me laugh - where is a good place to look for weather conditions? Try the sky :)

[Octavius]

Weather is a chaos system, orne of minor fluctuations having a major effect.

For want of a nail the shoe was lost;
For want of a shoe the horse was lost;
For want of a horse the battle was lost;
For the failure of battle the kingdom was lost--
All for the want of a horse-shoe nail

The best you'll get is seasonal likelihood. Its winter in the UK, its likely to be colder, with some intermittent sunshine and possibility of snow, and/or rain.

[AB Editor]

I have my reasons!

Looks like I'm out of luck in this instance however. Thanks for all your answers.

[DJHawkes]

I think the ed is doing one of the following:
1) Research for a job interview
2) Putting feelers out for prospective advertising clients
3) Messing with our heads

[heathfield]

Or considering investing in a shovel!