Summer predictions

[powell11]

Right, i'm confused. It's been in the newspapers and on the internet about the UK having a "barbecue summer" but i have been told that its impossible to predict the weather for more than a few days in the UK (because the weather is changing all the time) Why would the met office announce it again because they got last year completely wrong? so i'm on the barbecue weather side because they wouldn't make such a big announcement if they were sure it was going to happen.

[ABerrant]

Long range weather forecasting, much like medicine, is not an exact science. Anyone who claims they can foretell weather weeks and months in advance is either a liar or delusional.

The latest "Barbecue Summer" prediction does not originate from the Met Office - after many years of buying into the delusion they now see sense and refrain from such long-range announcements. This sounds like the territory of Positive Weather Solutions ...

http://www.dailymail....eather-Solutions.html

http://www.positivewe....uk/UK-Long-Range.php

http://www.metoffice....depth/long-range.html

[GuyMitchell]

there is also the other factor that many people forget and that is the solar cycle. Something like every 10-11 years the sun goes through a cycle of being hotter and chucking out much more radiation. So on the peak of those 10 years it might be fair to say that the chances of having a bbq summer are far more likely.

see here ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle for more information Media URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
Description:

[ABerrant]

"So on the peak of those 10 years it might be fair to say that the chances of having a bbq summer are far more likely."

...or apparently far less likely.

The heatwaves of 2006 (hottest July in UK since records began) and 1976 (the hottest summer...) and numerous other "hottest" and "warmest" records have been set during the troughs of the irradiance cycle.