One Reason Why Polls Were Wrong?

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35308129
It seems pollsters do not talk to potential Tory voters so readily. There may be something in it, I have never been asked how I'd vote for example.

[bhg481]

Perhaps it's the other way round TTT - potential tory voters won't talk to pollsters. I can't tell how someone is going to vote by looking at them, presumably neither can the pollsters but, if someone asks me how I'm going to vote, I don't tell them.

[ichkeria]

Yes I saw that and I agree it is more plausible than the "scared to admit I'm a Tory" theory. The fact that post-election polls matched pre-election polls is very interesting.

I've never been polled either. I am not a Tory supporter, but given that I also don't know anyone who has, it does suggest there might be a general issue.

Personally I think they should not bother having them at all.

[Canary42]

It must depend to a large extent on how the poll is taken.

Is it "accosting person in the street"
Is it "random telephone calls"
Is it "online"

All of these are far from perfect.

Another factor is the authenticity of responses - a very dodgy area.

So I agree that polls are a waste of time, and they should be ignored by the media - fat chance.

[ichkeria]

"Proper" ones are phone presumably?

And presumably not random.

[jim360]

Possibly -- I remain convinced that a bigger issue was that the polls became coupled to some people's decision-making processes: "My god there's going to be a hung parliament, that might mean Labour-SNP coalition, no way I'm allowing that, Tory is a safer choice", sort of thing.

[whiskeryron]

T = Trust
O = Our
R = Rusty
Y = Yatter,Yatter

[ToraToraTora]

Have a rest Ron that must have been very tiring.

[fiction-factory]

Polls are only based a few thousand people, so even if a few hundred polls are taken it is still only a tiny fraction of the adult population so it's hardly surprising most of us haven't been asked.
I was asked by phone at the last election but didn't respond- mainly because I don't deal with most uninvited callers

[bazwillrun]

I have never been polled nor anybody I know.

"So I agree that polls are a waste of time, and they should be ignored by the media"

tell that to mikey4444...came a right cropper at the last election...HAHAHA he wont learn his lesson though...dyed in the wool and all that....once bitten twice sh...nah he wont learn....

[Khandro]

Prior to the Oldham by-election, a Muslim woman was asked by a pollster for whom she would be voting and she said, "I don't know, I haven't been told yet".

[Marshwarble]

It must be very hard to find a Tory voter. Have they thought of throwing a brick?

[mikey4444]

But nobody can say why its easy to find Labour voters, but relatively difficult to find Tory voters.

Addresses for the British Social Attitudes survey are chosen at random, all over the country and in every different type of economic area. The interviewers cannot choose where to go, or go somewhere else if they can't get a reply, or someone refuses to take part.

Taking the issue of people who won't take part, why could it be that Tory supporters are more likely to refuse than Labour supporters ?

[mikey4444]

There is another issue that Prof Curtice fails to address.

While most of the Polls got the Labour and Tory position wrong, they were bang on the nail when it came to support for UKIP, SNP, PC, and the Libdems.

So why is it just Tory supporters that seem to be hard to track down, when there doesn't seem to be an issue locating supporters of all the other Parties ?

[Peter Pedant]

// I have never been asked how I'd vote for example.//

so they dont ask Tories or those on the outer far right ... right ?

Dewey was predicted to win 1948 against Truman and that was because they said it was a telephone poll and the phone owners like Dewey.

One of the Thatcher elections - they concluded that the poll victims had lied

and finally - there is a question about quota filling in polls
suppose you have polled and got too many stockbrokers to answer - is it acceptable to ignore the rest of the stock brokers and just get answers from blue collar worker or whichever froup is underrepresented