Has May Made A Grave Mis Calculation?

[youngmafbog]

And could JC's giveaways backfire on him if he is called on by the people to deliver?

May has taken the electorate for fools, in her pursuit of labour stronghold seats she has forsaken the fringe Tories who count in a GE. Not only the 'rob the pensioners and savers to pay the feckless, workshy and foreigners and all the trouble some bring', but she has now seen to be very wanting in her post of Home Secretary.

When I pointed out a few days back JC was in with a chance, I was howled down. I hope I am not correct but seems I may well be.

Will the last person out the country please turn out the light - if there are any left.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4543492/Corbyn-closes-just-two-weeks-go.html

[Jackdaw33]

From a Tory point of view a Labour revival in Scotland will make no difference as it will be replacing one opposition party with another. I did read somewhere that the Tories could gain up to 10 seats in Scotland but I think that is very optimistic.

[Apariah]

yes I think TM has fallen into the classic trap of thinking she can't lose, bit like a certain welshman in 1992. If there is one thing that the public hate it is being taken for granted and I think she may have taken her eye off the ball.

[youngmafbog]

So long as she does not fall over on the beach with Mr May.

[jim360]

I suppose the SNP/Labour balance is only really important in the case of a hung Parliament, or at any rate if the Tories don't have a majority. I don't think Labour can really hope to win the election without a hefty chunk of Scottish seats.

[ichkeria]

This is quite interesting also
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/may/26/the-polls-could-be-right-about-labours-gains-but-also-misleading

[jim360]

Quite. There's also the problem Labour faces that the Tory party's vote share may not be that much larger than Labour's but it's still set to be larger than it was in 2015. So that means that Labour's recovery doesn't seem to me to be set to translate into many gains, and maybe still a slight loss of overall seat numbers.

Whatever the case on June 8th, though, I think you'd be hard-pressed to deny that the Tories are in a far less comfortable position today than they were even a week or two ago. Luckily, they've got a long way to fall (and the luxury of returning UKIP votes) before this translates into a loss. I suppose you could say that anything short of a significant increase in majority (+40-odd seats) is a loss of sorts, when that's what May was surely hoping for.

[Jackdaw33]

It will be an interesting election night, that's for sure. I'd better stock up on popcorn and drinks. Can't see me going to bed much before 4 a.m.

[Deskdiary]

"Has May made a grave miscalculation?"

I sincerely hope not, because the alternative really does not bear thinking about. Does anybody, with their hand on their heart, seriously consider Corbyn, McDonnell and just about the most absurd person in the world, Abbott (if it is possible to be more absurd than McDonnell) to be a viable alternative for the three most important jobs in Government?

Really?

Their Success Tax alone should consign these morons to the dustbin of history, but then add in to the mix their un-costed promises (unless people think their promises can be paid for by fairy dust) what you have is a very real disaster for everybody waiting to happen.

I am a natural Tory, and by that I mean I believe in low taxation, small government and small regulation, and frankly I'm concerned that TM is too left wing for me, but there really is no alternative.

As far as the poll dip is concerned, it is natural for the sitting party to suffer a dip after a tragedy such as Manchester - come the weekend polls (if polls are even worth considering) the Tories will gain some lost ground.

I am not being melodramatic when I say Labour, in its current form, would be a disaster for the UK.

[jourdain2]

Yes, a Labour victory would be a disaster. I did say to Mr J2 that May was 'snatching defeat from the jaws of Victory' on the day the manifesto was published. At the same time I feel that a Tory victory is necessary for the future of the country. Our MP is rock-solid Tory, so I will probably vote UKIP again - just to remind the powers-that-be that a firm Brexit is still required.

[jno]

I dont want to be voting in a Bremoaning Liberal.

But you've known all along that this is what she is, YMB. She was a remainer from the start; she only got the top job because all the Brexit campaigners ran away. Now you're stuck with her. I expect she'll do her best; I'm not at all sure that her best is good enough.

[Jackdaw33]

I disagree. I have said this more than once on other threads. May had no choice but to be a reluctant Remainer as Remain were widely expected to win, in which case Cameron would have dropped her like a hot brick. This would have been the end of her career. She hardly put herself out to campaign for the Remain cause. It is my belief that she was a closet Brexiter all along. Just look at the enthusiasm with which she has promoted A50.

[youngmafbog]

//because all the Brexit campaigners ran away. //

That is simply no true.

However the rest of your post does hold some validity. What remain to be seen is whether what jack has posted i true, personally like I said before; the jury is out for me.

[Jackdaw33]

There are not many sacred cows in politics these days but one of them is the grey vote. Alienate that and you are heading for the opposition benches. I would have thought that May would have known that. Seemingly not.

[youngmafbog]

And not just the grey vote.

In my circle of friends we have another 9-10 years but all of us are now wondering whether 'paying in' is worthwhile.

My missus received a letter to say she was short and would she like to pay in to get to receive the full pension. but the full State Pension is a benefit so can be means tested, so this smacks of the PPI miss selling scandal to me but I doubt the 'elite' care about that. May certainly does not.

Most of my circles of friends, admittedly reasonable y wealthy, are no looking to retire early, spend the lost and ensure they can get the State Pension at least by 75. As I, and many of my friends, working the finance industry we reckon it is ripe for a product that enaels you to release equity without rip-off as they currently are on your property to stop the State grabbing your hard earned to fund the feckless ork shy and foreigners who have paid zilch. Most of this thought has come from May's manifesto which clearly shows a plan for feesing savers. Labour e know woul do thi but now the Tories have admitte it well we know it to be true.

[Zacs-Master]

Wad he say Musky, was he say?

[youngmafbog]

Are you popped up Zacs?

[Zacs-Master]

I thought it was 'national spelling mistake night' and I'd join in.

[jno]

That is simply no true

Why not? I think I'm right in recalling that Fox was the only one who didn't, but he was eliminated from the vote quickly. Gove sort of stayed in the race but presented a CV that basically said "don't vote for me". Leadsom withdrew rather than face a final vote. Boris quit.