The Oxford English Dictionary (TOED) states that the football-pitch story (quote) "cannot be upheld with any certainty" and seems to favour the board-game possibility.
However, this was one of the phrases featured in the recent Victoria Coren TV series 'Balderdash & Piffle' which tried to establish earlier uses of phrases than the one recorded in TOED. The dictionary's earliest reference comes from 1960, but I cannot for the life of me remember whether this was one of the examples for which an earlier provenance was discovered.
Whatever...it's far from certain that 'Back to square one' is an accurate answer to your question, Detective.