for tomorrow gives us a 30% chance of rain between 3pm and 6 pm - but what does a 30% chance of rain mean? I can't get my head round it! I can understand a 50% chance - either its going to rain or not, but how do you know what is forecast when it is a 30% chance?
Official answer: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/accuracy-and-trust/probability In practice though you should try to relate it to other 'real life' probabilities. If the probability of your partner coming home drunk from his firms 'do' is 90%, then you'll be expecting him to get p.ss.d but you'll recognise that there's still a slim...
Well found out the hard way! Might only have been 30% chance but we sure as eggs is eggs got 100% of the wet stuff! From 1pm onwards too - lying bar stewards!