Keeping An Eye On New Cases Of Covid.

[Barsel]

I decided I would keep an eye on the number of deaths and new cases of Covid -19 before
deciding when I felt it would be safe to venture out.Somebody recommended this site to me. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Looking at this months figures on the 1st there were 1570 new cases and 111 deaths. On the 2nd there were 1653 new cases and 324 deaths, and yesterday there were 1871 new cases and 359 deaths. So, as I have stopped watching reports on the TV or reading about it, I am going solely by these figures, are they correct? Is the situation getting worse?Thanks.

[pixie374]

I know we have tried to "spread out" the cases, but it does seem a worryingly long time for so many deaths still. In March, I was hoping it would be very much less by June.

[fiction-factory]

No, the daily figures are misleading-eg 1st June was Monday but fewer deaths get reported at weekends. The 7 day rolling average is better but I have noticed that has flattened out recently after falling consistently for a month or so.
Also, daily figures don't reflect the current situation -they include deaths that may have occurred a week or two ago but just been reported through.

[fiction-factory]

The 'new cases' figure is going up because we are testing far more- doesn't mean more people have it than used to have it.

[pixie374]

But also, they will only test people on nursing units, who are far easier to isolate. They still are refusing to test people in residential or dementia units who interact a lot more. Symptoms or not.

[fiction-factory]

if you click on the 7 day moving average box rather than the daily deaths box it smooths out the figures to iron out he fluctuations such a s the weekend effect.

[fiction-factory]

>They still are refusing to test people in residential or dementia units who interact a lot more. Symptoms or not.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing pixie- I'm just checking what you mean. I know that there are practical difficulties in administering nose and throat tests to some dementia patients, but I thought they were trying to do more tests in carehomes where possible

[woofgang]

the same thing about the long tail on the current curves was mentioned yesterday at the briefing. Yes more tests will find more cases of course and it won't be until the number of tests is stabilised that we will see what the proportion of positive ones is really doing. Deaths is also a difficult one as you really need to know who is dying to know what the virus is doing. I find the medics and scientists on the briefing to be more useful as they explain things honestly and use the science to do it. worldometers is useful but its raw data.

[pixie374]

They may be now, ff. A few of my friends and my daughter still work at the care home that I used to.
Three people on the nursing units have been tested and found positive, but they weren't allowed to get anybody tested from the extra-care flats, dementia or residential units. They weren't eligible, even if they had symptoms. Yes, a few with dementia might not want to co-operate, but the others could be offered at least.

[Rosetta]

My mother in law is in a residential home and the whole home were tested as a matter of routine this week, so it is happening in places. Unfortunately she has dementia and vehemently declined the test

[woofgang]

pixie,who is "they"?
This is what the test application website says, scroll down to care home residents and workers https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested#care-home

and here's the link to apply https://www.gov.uk/apply-coronavirus-test-care-home

[pixie374]

Thank you, woof x I'm going to send that to the manager, as that might well help.

[Barsel]

For those of you who know much more about it than I do, are the new cases going up or down, or do we not know for sure and will we ever?

[fiction-factory]

The numbers of new cases are going down overall across the UK- see the graph, rolling average. We can't know for certain of course since it depends on testing but we are testing a lot more and finding fewer cases so it's pretty certain that the actual number is going down. The number of hospital admissions is another indicator and that is falling. I noticed some areas are falling less quickly than others though- eg Northern Ireland seems to be picking up slightly

[woofgang]

Barsel I quote the specialists at the briefing who said that the new found cases ARE going down but slowly. The case figure, I think, are not as indicative as the those hospitalised figures which are going down, even though the same person may be counted more than once because they are in hospital over many days. I don't think though, and again its been pointed out, that lowering figures mean that the pandemic is going away, it means IMO that we have some control over the spread by our behaviour, which again IMO does lower the risk for Shielders.

[ABSpareEditor]

I have moved this thread into the category "Society & Culture".

[Barsel]

Thanks ABSpareEditor. Will you be moving TheDevils thread to here as well? The one entitled Not sure where to put this one Status of Covid or is it ok to leave that one in CB?