Delighted If That’s The Right Word ?

[Bobbisox1]

My daughter who works in a busy dental practice as a clinical manager, ordered 25 antibody tests for staff, hers came back positive so it seems she’s definitely had Covid 19 in March and now she has the antibodies

[Bobbisox1]

I realise there’s no guarantee of it not happening again but hopefully , it doesn’t

[Peter Pedant]

hi bobbz and v - word
I do get the times on paper and read the very article you refer to
I was gonna email Dr Porter and say - if ya dont know what a PPV value(*) is DON'T write on the subject!
I decided to read Sophocles Antigone on the grounds that it was more worth while =I mean have you read the drongo-crip on AB this week - BUT

the nub of Dr Porter;s article for us proles was
1) different to throat scrapes and the test for virus
2) you cant dial one up
3) but they can be ordered for health workers
4) not as useful as you think ( I wondered about that)
5) about 4% are wrong - that appears to be the false pos rate
5a (which leads me to the PPV - naughty boy - the thing you wanna know is - if it is positive, have I had the disease?
This is the PPV and should be above 95%)
6) see 5 - this does not mean the PPV is 96% - the PPV depends also on what the incidence of the disease is - with very high infection rates a false positive rate of 4% becomes less important.
7) if you are not hospitalised and I notice madame was - then level may not be protective for very long - oo-er Mrs we havent been told that have we?
8) you can buy it in but the reliability is not well controlled = may well be useless
9) stick tests out side the lab are likely to be less reliable

and that is about it

er someone said there was an article in the times about it and this is anout the article wh is behind a pay wall

[Peter Pedant]

// I realise there’s no guarantee of it not happening again but hopefully , it doesn’t//

er was that second wave?

inevitable they now say -

Germany S Korea singapore and Japan have all had re-outbreaks

Fauci the big fella in America ( the one Trump says he doesnt like morchy ) says - second wave in the land of the Free - we havent got over the first one yet

[Sam1960]

Heard this on the news this afternoon Bobbi ....
https://www.whfp.com/2020/06/23/skye-nursing-home-worker-positive-for-covid-19-for-a-second-time/

[Bobbisox1]

I’m just keeping upbeat about this , I have to

[DTCwordfan]

Leeds General have tested 700+ medics/staff and over 600 have come back positive on the antibodies, nearly all having experienced nothing, a few with a mild headache/touch of fatigue and nothing more.

[Bobbisox1]

DTC, she was extremely ill, high temp, hacking cough, struggling to breathe and very fatigued ,in bed for 9 days sleeping all the time

[Peter Pedant]

various points - people can ignore = djokovic move
where you know what is right and ignore it. He ( D) is an anti-vaxxer, and so yeah ! do the experiment
People ( researchers ) should find out if anti vaxxersa are prepared to take more risk than we do - AND take more rish when it is someone else who foots the bill
ANYWAAAAAAY

there was a computer trial where they looked at mega people - only 20 000, I thought it might be 200 000
and came up with
Old - male - diabetes oh and a late association - Asian.
which we kinda knew anyway. dunno how much it cost

and finally the CMO says that 5% population is antibody positive ( protected. and so refer abovr
1) in one hyndred people - 4 ^ are false positive so that is 3
2) and 5% score positive because they have antibody so that is 5
3) total score is therefore 9 out a hundred
4) of those 9 - - 5 have had the disease
so if you score positive then the chance you are protected is 5/9 or 55% - way below the PPV you want of 95%

( and if the antibody rate is 60% then it swamp the false posirive rate and the chance that your positive result shows you are immune is around 100% )

yeah there will be one or two who can follow this
BUT - all this is available and searchable on the internet

[Peter Pedant]

// 1) in one hyndred people - 4 ^ are false positive so that is 3//

should be

1) in one hyndred people - 4% are false positive so that is 4
durrr - didnt proof read