2020 Melbourne Cup - 4 A.m. Tues 3 Nov

[Ken4155]

As per usual in handicap fields of this size, i have resorted to the 20 year trends in order to whittle the 24 runners down to a more manageable number. And, because there is quite a list of trends, i have chosen just the top 2 (i.e. the 20/20 and 19/20) and employed a 'one strike and you're out' policy. Which, unfortunately rules out my initial fancy, last year's 4th placed Prince Of Arran, on account of age - all 20 previous winners were aged 3 - 6.
Save for one or two exceptions (think Prince Of Penzance @ 100/1 in 2015) most recent winners of the race came from those fancied in the market, though not the fav (just one winning fav in last 10 years).
I have whittled it down to a shortlist of a half dozen and, while my selection would much prefer some juice in the ground (expected to be quite warm with good going) it did improve with every yard when winning the Cox Plate lto.
Selection; Sir Dragonet
Bet not yet placed - waiting to see if it drifts - but current price is around the 9/1 mark. Skybet are paying on 7 places so i may have another look later for an outsider i feel can fill one of those positions.
Good luck if anyone is punting :-)

[Ken4155]

I have taken the 8/1 available for Sir Dragonet and i believe - and hope - that Warning can run a big race @ 40/1 as my e.w. selection with SkyBet (7 places).

[Ken4155]

Nothing doing, unfortunately, with the race going to Joseph O'Brien's Twilight Payment (22/1) beating his dad's horse Tiger Moth (9/2) by a half length. Prince Of Arran, already placed twice in this tough race, was 3rd @ 15/2. The winner is a 7 year old - blowing at least one stat out of the window :-(
Mt main hope Sir Dragonet ran well enough to finish roughly 4l down in 6th, Warning could only manage 12th. There's always next year......