Numbers Used To Justify Second Lockdown Were Wrong.

[Deskdiary]

The doom-mongering numbers from last Saturday, used to justify this unnecessary second lockdown, have proven to be false.

Is this down to an innocent mistake, incompetence or something else?

I can't help but think it's down to, as Theresa May said, "figures are chosen to support the policy rather than the policy being based on the figures".

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/05/covid-graphs-wrong-death-toll-will-not-surpass-first-wave/

Even the United Kingdom Statistics Authority is telling them not to hoodwink the public.

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/osr-statement-regarding-transparency-of-data-related-to-covid-19/

[Old_Geezer]

They just seem to be continually panicking to me. Playing over safe on virus related health even if it just delays things and ruins lives and the economy. Anyone would think they'd experienced the virus and had a brush with death, or something. Still, I suspect someone will claim it's all right after all and what the experts advise.

[Old_Geezer]

PS those towering death graph predictions always looked vety dodgy.

[Atheist]

Retro: "It appears to me that ther is a sinister agenda in the back ground and covid is used by National and Local government to push through unpopular policies on the strength of fear and lies using vastly exaggerated figures as an excuse."
What unpopular policies would that be? Damaging the economy? Generally p**ing people off? Doesn't seem to make sense to me. Is this just paranoia on your part? I think you should be worried if you have started seeing unseen dark forces behind things.

[Zacs-Master]

Sunk for BA!

You can argue the statistics until the seas run dry. Meanwhile our hospitals are filling up with cases.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/elective-operations-cancelled-birmingham-queen-19232806

[Old_Geezer]

If getting more cov patients than they wish locally, then they should move patients to where there is still capacity. While the Nightingales are still unused this idea of being overwhelmed while still well below the figures in the spring, is most unconvincing.

[New Judge]

There has been no elective surgery at my local hospital (the one with the seventeen unoccupied wards) since March. And I don't think it's unique. If people in Birmingham have been able to enjoy non-urgent surgical procedures during the summer I don't know why they're moaning.

[pixie374]

We don't have a "lockdown" as far as I can see. Just shutting small shops. All keyworkers, schools, colleges, universities continue. Those alone or needing care can continue, people going to shops... there seem to be more exceptions than not.
Either lockdown or don't, but they seem to be causing mayhem, by trying to seem to be doing "something".

[youngmafbog]

Hostpitals are not filling up. SOME hospitals are filling up.

It's quite clear now that the Tier system does keep the numbers in check, unless anyone is claiming the clever old virus knows there is a lockdown and stopped infecting people a few days before it started.

Using stats to bamboozle people is a common tacit among those without a real argument. It's stupid though, someone will soon see through it and then that leads to people in the future ignoring anything said. Which is happening here, Johnson and Herr Hancock have lost the will of the public - apart from a few Covid worshipers.

[Zacs-Master]

NJ, you seem to be, day by day, loosing your powers of reasoning. The latest example is 'If people in Birmingham have been able to enjoy non-urgent surgical procedures during the summer I don't know why they're moaning.'

This is a stultifyingly ignorant statement ignoring the fact that there are new cases of heart diseas, cancer, etc etc every day.

YMB - I didn't write 'all hospitals'. I appreciate there are exceptions. I'm not sure the poor use of statistics is the main reason the Govt and its Ministers have lost a lot of public support.

[youngmafbog]

And neither did you say some. You chose the words to suit your message.

[Zacs-Master]

You're right, I always choose my words carefully. Anyone with a basic grasp of our language would realise that the use of the word Hospitals did not define a 'set', merely a 'sub set'. But not you, eh.

[New Judge]

//This is a stultifyingly ignorant statement ignoring the fact that there are new cases of heart diseas, cancer, etc etc every day.//

I did say "non-urgent". I would imagine (though could not be sure) that the conditions you mention are classified as urgent. That's all that's being dealt with in my local hospital (and furthermore the definition of "urgent" is very restrictive). That's why there are so many empty beds.

The link you provided earlier was headlined "All elective operations cancelled at Birmingham Queen Elizabeth Hospital as Covid cases rise." Although I find the term "elective surgery" a little strange (as if anybody in their right mind would choose to undergo surgery) I understand what it means. The people of Birmingham are lucky in that it has been taking place in one of their hospitals. There has been no elective surgery undertaken where I live since this malarky kicked off; the only surgery that has been carried out is on people who would die quite quickly without it. What's more, not all of that which should have been undertaken has been and as a result some people have died.

[bednobs]

YMB you say "It's quite clear now that the Tier system does keep the numbers in check"
yet a few weeks ago you said it wasn't the way to go!

[Peter Pedant]

// Although I find the term "elective surgery" a little strange //

I really REALLY feel that someone who does not know who or what elective surgery is, should not be offering opinions on use, bed occupancy, covid and so on

and yes people do undergo surgery at will
boobs and noses spring to mind

I did not have a hernia repaired electively and ended up obstructed and with an emergency procedure which has a higher mortality

[iluvmargie]

ymb be warned, bednobs is BRILLIANT at pointing out past comments abers have made!!! Thinks she's being clever.

[bednobs]

I beg to differ NJ, I underwent two elective caesarians (most willingly) and 2 hip replacements (most willing)

[bednobs]

well, i'm kind of still waiting for you to do the same Margie, after you accused me of pensioner bashing , but despite me refuting it and you accusing me at least twice, I still ahvent see your evidence? I am hoping to be a pensioner one day.

[New Judge]

//I really REALLY feel that someone who does not know who or what elective surgery is,..//

And I really REALLY feel that someone who cannot grasp what point is being made should not comment on it unless they seek clarification. The term “Elective surgery” is used to describe that which is planned in advance, not undertaken to address an urgent situation. Knee replacements, hip replacements and so on, you know, only where the patient is in extreme distress or pain or perhaps immobilised but not likely to die. “Elective” suggests elected or chosen. It’s true that patients choose to undergo it but usually because they have no practical alternative. They effectively face Hobson’s choice – no choice at all. That’s why I find the term strange, not because I do not know "who or what it is".

//I did not have a hernia repaired electively and ended up obstructed and with an emergency procedure which has a higher mortality//

Bad luck. If you had developed that condition since last March and you lived round here you would not have had a choice.

I underwent two elective caesarians (most willingly) and 2 hip replacements (most willing).

See above

//and yes people do undergo surgery at will
boobs and noses spring to mind//

Quite. I did say “anybody in their right mind.”

[Old_Geezer]

Keeping numbers in check can be considered not the way to go. It delays herd immunity and lengthens the time we are stuck enduring the oppressive demands of a government who seem to have lost any understanding of western personal freedoms. Managing the numbers to avoid being overwhelmed is fine, but not as an excuse to push citizens around when we have capacity and any reasonable prediction would show that there's no need to panic; again.