Aintree Festival 2021

[Ken4155]

Spent a couple of hours last night, running the rule over the strongest stats for each race. These are some of those stats and my provisional selections (non-runners willing, etc);

1.45; All 11 past winners in first 3 in market. 10/11 beaten at Cheltenham, particularly Marsh Novices. Nicky Henderson has trained 2 of the 11 winners.
Selection; Fusil Raffles currently 11/4

2.20; 22/25 winners either won or placed in graded races earlier in season. 14 of the last 15 winners were placed lto. French bred account for 11/21 winners. 8/15 favs obliged.
Selection; Adagio currently 6/4

2.50; 25/36 winners ran in that seasons Gold Cup but just 2 of 14 placed at the Festival won this race. Better to look at those who were outside the first 3 in the GC. 12 of last 23 winners had placed in first 4 in King George same season and 2nd/3rd favs have accounted for 12 of the last 27 winners.
Selection; Native River* currently 5/1

3.25; 9 of last 23 winners ran in last years race, 7 placing. 21/43 winners were trained in Ireland and most had bypassed Cheltenham in total contrast to the 24 British trained winners which all ran at Cheltenham. All winners since 2008 ran within 49 days of this race. Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2011, '12, '17 & '18.
Selection; Jason The Militant* currently 3/1

4.05; 18/20 winners came from first 5 in betting, 34/36 winners were aged at least 9 years old and 23/28 were placed lto. 13/18 did not begin in PTP.
Selection; Sametegal* currently 13/2

4.40; Just 1 of 11 winners carried more than 11-2 to victory. 10/18 were novices.
Selection; Dostal Phil* currently 14/1

5.15; No real strong stats.
Selection; Elle Est Belle currently 3/1

* Denotes probable Lucky 15 bet. Others will go in a Trixie/Treble.

Back when my decision has been made. Best of luck, all.

[Togo]

Just had "she who must be obeyed" pick a fancy for tomorrow. I will put a quid e/w on Minellacelebration for her. All daughters, sisters, aged aunts, wives, mothers, and grandmas have an uncanny knack you know.............(knack you know rolls off the tongue)

[Ken4155]

The only knack i ever noticed the once a year punters having was the total inability to write out a betting slip. "Excuse me, can you help me?", they'd ask, pen and slip in hand, bewilderment in their eyes. And, of course, being the soft sod i am, i wrote their slips out for them, missing a race or two while i did so. That's he beauty of on line betting; no-one tapping me on the shoulder to put a National bet on:-))
Hoping the stats will help me halve the number of runners at the very least. Just about to have my first gander.

[Ken4155]

Just got rid of 7 runners on age alone - in the last 20 runnings, just one 12 yo and no 7 yo have won.

[Ken4155]

And another 7 have met the black ink due to their not having won over at least 3 miles.
I'll do the rest in the morning.

[Ken4155]

Just put another line through a few more on account of their not having run enough races this season. The last 20 winners had all run 3 - 6 races prior to the Grand National.
So, having extinguished all the main negatives, i am now looking at the positives, the main one being the fact that, no matter what he does in this race, Cloth Cap is set to go up a stone in weight for all future races. Is he, then, a good thing? The bookies appear to think so, pricing him at around 4/1 - 9/2. I'd want that just for him to get round the course! Five favs have obliged since 1991, which isn't a bad return, but the value of Cloth Cap's price has long gone.

[Ken4155]

Just discovered another negative. 20 of the last 23 winners had not fallen or unseated more than twice in their careers prior to winning the National. Two that did, however, came in the last 3 years.
My list is now a more manageable 12!

[Ken4155]

A few stats for some of today's Aintree races, other than the National;

1.45;; 17/32 winners ran at Cheltenham (Pertemps being the strongest trend). Negatives include less than 4 runs same season and failing to win earlier in season.

2.25; 17/22 winners were either first or 2nd favs and 16 of the last 23 had had a top 7 finish at Cheltenham.

3.35; All bar one of 16 winners were found in first 3 in market. 13 of last 16 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at this meeting before.

4.15; All bar 3 of the last 20 winners had run within 35 days of this race. 19 of 23 winners were aged 9 or younger.

[Ken4155]

1.45 Ain; Come On Teddy @ 6/1 (7 places)
3.05 N'c; Catlin @ 7/2 (4 places)
3.35 Ain; Roksana @ 11/2 (5 places)
4.15 Ain; Cloudy Glen @ 11/1 (5 places)

Win singles, 20p Lucky 15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = £23, 4 winners = £3,065.

Rev f'c Come On Teddy and Champagne Platinum 1.45 Ain

ITV 7; Ballyadam, Emissaire, Shishkin, Catlin, Roksana, Cloudy Glen & Burrows Saint. Take out the 1/7 Shishkin and £1 e.w. sixfold.

From that list of 12 i mentioned earlier, i have chosen 5, 1 to win and 4 e.w. 6 places;

£5 win Burrows Saint @ 10/1
£1.50 e.w. Magic Of Light @ 16s
£1.50 e.w. Mister Makarkey @ 16s
£1 e.w. Acapella Bourgeois @ 25/1
£1 e.w. Lakeview Lad @ 50/1

Now watch Cloth Cap romp home by a distance :-((

And the very best of luck to all punters - even the 'once a year ones' :-))

[Togo]

Beautiful morning up here. Got a punt on before getting a bit done in the garden again before the gig un. Done the ITV7 as well. In the National I have done 3. Yala Enke and Potters Corner e/w and Minella Times win only. Put Minella in my ITV7 with a heavy heart as it meant leaving Potters Corner out(I suppose I could do 2 ITV7s mind hmmm)
Still for now ...
Come on Teddy @6/1 1.45A
My Drogo @7/4 3.35A
Roksana @11/2 3.35A
Cloudy Glen @11/1 4.15A
E/W Acca and Trebles, win doubles singles on the better than 5s odds runners.
In the ITV7 the bottom 3 with Master Newton, Shishkin, Wye Aye, Minella Times. Good Luck to you all.

[Togo]

We have almost done the same punt Ken. Especially Good Luck for you then.

[Ken4155]

Hope your acca comes in, Togo. It would me i have at least 3 winners :-)))

[Togo]

Little 50p e/w on Tout Est Permis and Viex Lion Rouge as well.

[Ken4155]

Well in with the winner, Togo. Nearest i got was with my main selection, Burrows Saint (4th i think). Just pleased to have seen history being made.

[Togo]

She is a star Ken. I also had a 5 timer place return(not much just bragging rights).Another year passes, but I am convinced that if you get the winner of the National then you are guaranteed a successful flat campaign. :))

[Ken4155]

I'm hoping the reverse is true, Togo :-)))