Latest E C Prediction, Boris Wins By 42 Clear Majority........

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Mid term mid crisis, Hancock-gate etc, I'll settle for that. No sign of Labour's 4th GE winning leader on the Horizon. Happy days.

[ichkeria]

Good grief this is hard work

[naomi24]

Hard work of your own making,. That's what happens when you attempt to spin and people question you on it.

[Jackdaw33]

The general election in December 2019 was the first held in that month for over 100 years. The last one was in December 1910, the second election of that year due to a parliamentary crisis.

[gulliver1]

10.46 +10.54 ....You are losing it.

[ichkeria]

Not sure if you are being deliberately dense Naomi, but as I already explained, a Dec 2024 election is really only going to happen if Boris Johnson, or anyone else, even a Labour politician, is desperate to cling on to the bitter end. December elections only happen in extreme circumstances, as we’ve seen.
It’s interest tho that replacing the FTPA tho could allow that option, given that actually the current term is actually well under the 5 years

[ToraToraTora]

ich: //"My point was that Johnson is unlikely to hold on to Dec 2024 unless the government is in dire straits
There was a clue in: “I can’t see …”// - my point is that the next GE is May 2024, not Dec 2024 and he's not "hanging on" - he should be but he ain't. He'll win with a clear majority if an election was called now. I don't see how that could possibly be described as a "wreckage".

[ToraToraTora]

ich, you do realise that the next election, even under FTPA is May 2024? right?

[ToraToraTora]

ich: "if Boris Johnson, or anyone else, even a Labour politician, is desperate to cling on to the bitter end." - what "bitter end" he's beating the S H 1 out of Labour.

[ichkeria]

The point was made ages ago above that without the FTPA, the parliamentary term need not end in July.
In fact I mentioned that in my previous post!!

[ichkeria]

Don’t you understand the concept of hypothetical arguments?!

[ToraToraTora]

yes when they are valid.

[youngmafbog]

Well its good in one way - keeping labour out but not in another in that Johnson may think he can do what he likes.

I think this prediction is more of a damnation of Sir Kier, rather than the joy of Johnsons polcies.

[ToraToraTora]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011
"Under the FTPA the next general election is automatically scheduled for the first Thursday in May of the fifth year after the previous general election—or the fourth year if the date of the previous election was before the first Thursday in May. " - "hanging on" to Dec 2024 is not an option.

[ichkeria]

Tora I don’t wish to be rude but I’m not sure if you are being deliberately obtuse also: what bit of “if the FTPA is replaced then the rule you have just quoted no longer applies” don’t you get?
Then in theory as Davebro interestingly pointed out the election could in theory be held in Dec 2024.
But politicians don’t hold December elections unless they’re desperate.
Phew ….

[ToraToraTora]

ok so If the FTPA is abolished between now and 2024, the PM could wait till Dec 2024. In theory but very unlikely, as the PM is winning by a mile at any time between now and then. Why are you talking about "clinging on" - he's no where near that stage and is unlikely to be. Mid term, mid crisis, hancock gate, he should be behind labour he's not.

[THECORBYLOON]

As the forecast is based upon "opinion polls from 28 May 2021 to 28 Jun 2021, sampling 14,792 people", the Hancock affair is unlikely to have had any major impact upon responses, is it?