Would Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

[ichkeria]

https://amp.france24.com/en/europe/20220115-us-says-russia-is-planning-sabotage-to-justify-invasion-of-ukraine

[ichkeria]

You are arguing the legality of something that happened decades ago in a meeting of a government of a country that does not even exist any more!

[ichkeria]

"Ukraine and Russia signed ‘a big treaty’ in 1997. Amongst other things it forbid either country from invading the other. "

Those were in the days when Ukraine was still more or less a satellite of Russia with a government consisting largely of old communist party apparatchiks. Anyway, Russia also signed an agreement to withdraw from the (non South Ossetian) territory of Georgia that it occupied in 2008, an agreement it has to this day completely ignored.
I would absolutely agree that Russia has a right to meddle in Ukraine's affairs if the people of that country wanted it. Plainly they don't. Putin by his actions has poisoned (at times literally) the relations of two countries that should indeed be a lot closer.

[sevenOP]

So it is not just cyber warfare, hybrid warfare, grey-zone warfare, but now 'planned false flag accusation' warfare.
Less than a month ago the similar allegations were made by Russia against the USA:

"American mercenaries preparing ‘chemical weapon’ incident in east Ukraine, Russia claims"

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rebels-russia-claim-imminent-chemical-disaster-us-urges-calm-1662031

As for alleged 'cyber-attacks', the Wikileaks released 'Vault 7' in spring 2017, made it perfectly clear that the CIA had long had the ability to forge IP addresses, where they originated, and leave 'fingerprints'( Chinese,Russian, N. Korean, et worldwide languages script cetera ) fingering anyone but themselves.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/03/07/wikileaks-cia-hacking-group-umbrage-stockpiled-techniques-other-hackers/98867462/

Vault 7: CIA Hacking Tools Revealed https://wikileaks.org/ciav7p1/

Might as well trust the veracity of Boris Johnston, or, as youngmafbog astutely said, "The reality is, who really knows the truth?"

[ichkeria]

A bit late on parade aren’t you this time :-)

[ichkeria]

The CIA uses hacking tools

Well I never :-)

[ichkeria]

“ The reality is, who really knows the truth?"

Classic obfuscation.

[Khandro]

ichi; //You are arguing the legality of something that happened decades ago in a meeting of a government of a country that does not even exist any more!//

That is correct, but it's the only claim Ukraine has to Crimea; a rather dodgy arrangement made 60 years ago.

[ichkeria]

Which even if that were true doesn’t justify Russia’s actions in 2014.

The fact that the country that ceded Ukraine ceased to exist in 1991 isn’t entirely irrelevant either.
Even the “referendum” that was held was more crooked than a hairpin

[Khandro]

It is true, & you must know it, but I'll leave you with the last word.

[sevenOP]

ichkeria: "The CIA uses hacking tools Well I never :-) "

Hacking tools are programs that generally crack or break computer and network security measures, not generate a novel one.
Fabricating/falsifying and planting evidence is an entirely than spying on someone/something.
Possibly all large national security agencies have this 'ability'.

"Classic obfuscation"

LoL. Classic litotes.

[sevenOP]

ooops entirely different matter.... yes, it does matter (:- ))

[ichkeria]

When ymb wrote “who knows the truth” he was referring to likelihood of a Russian invasion, a perfectly fair comment which I agree with.
When you echoed it you were talking about the truth about the recent cyber attacks and intelligence about planned attacks in Ukraine.
Perhaps in your world the idea of “false false flags” makes some sort of sense. However it seems more the sort of “Shroedinger’s cat” approach to reality that serves malign intent very conveniently

[sevenOP]

youngmafbog @ 12:54 Sun 16th Jan 2022 :
"And equally they could be planning areal operation so that when Russia responds they say 'ah, the false flag justification'."

Perhaps PP can parse that, open to multiple interpretation comment above ? [; ¬ )

ichkeria: "When you echoed it you were talking about the truth about the recent cyber attacks and intelligence about planned attacks in Ukraine. "

The first 3 paragraphs of my initial reply were about the 'alleged'...potential' Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Indeed, in this sad world we live in, confusion "serves malign intent very conveniently", and I fully realise that Russia, USA,China,UK.......
are all equally perfectly 'capable' and probably willing to use, as you say, it as "obfuscation".

[ichkeria]

No I don't accept that the USA or the UK adopts the same tactics as Russia, China etc when it comes to blurring the facts

[ichkeria]

"And equally they could be planning areal operation so that when Russia responds they say 'ah, the false flag justification'.

I don't really understand what that means. Who is "they"?

Maybe the man himself will explain. It doesn't appear to make an awful lot of sense.