Given that there's no logical reason why it should ever work at all, asking if it will work in particular circumstances doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me.
However, irrespective of whether you're sticking pins into things or not, there's clearly a much better chance of a lost item turning up within three days (e.g. because it's simply been misplaced around one's house) than there is of a stolen one similarly reappearing (as it could be thousands of miles away by then and/or, unlike a lost item, being deliberately concealed by someone).
A thread from 17 years ago:
https://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/Phrases-and-Sayings/Question305900.html