Is War Weary Ukraine Losing The Will To Fight?

[naomi24]

//Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted, the BBC has discovered.

Some have swum dangerous rivers to leave the country. Others have simply walked out under cover of darkness.

Another 21,113 men attempted to flee but were caught by the Ukrainian authorities, Kyiv confirmed.

After Russia's invasion, most men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving. But data obtained by the BBC reveals dozens have made it out daily.//

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67120904

[ToraToraTora]

No.

[bazwillrun]

"But data obtained by the BBC reveals dozens have made it out daily"

"obtained" hahah, some of the more informed YouTube channels have been saying the same for ages...good old bbc

[ynnafymmi]

From all accounts it seems to be a stalement now,Naomi.Everyone knows that the Hamas terrorist attack on the Jews was orchestrated by Putin and the Iranians to try to take the heat out of Putins failed war against the Ukrainian people.

[Old_Geezer]

In any conflict some don't wish to participate. I doubt there's been a change of heart, just someone chose to highlight it.  Probably not the right time to, morale and all that.

[tommy39]

same happened in russia at the outbreak of the war

[ichkeria]

No!

I smiled when I saw this: the idea that no one would flee a war is bizarre. The good old Beeb have taken it upon themselves to do a census. These are figures since the start of the war: I have a friend from Kyiv who another friend mentioned had gone to Germany with his family: he doesn't have enough kids to exempt him from military service. When I asked him he claimed he was still in Kyiv: hmm.

These aren't deserters they are "cowards" if you want to put it like that: there are lots of ways you can help your country without taking up a gun, but still: it's human nature I guess. We are all different.

[ichkeria]

The war certainly isn't a stalemate: it's true that neither side is advancing much, but you have to look behind the territorial gains: Russian has been losing an average of 1000 personnel a day for a while now, largely due to their suicidal assaults on Avdiivka: they cannot possibly sustain that, nor any real advantage militarily as long as they remain incapable of doing anything other than largely infantry assaults due to the ruination of their mechanised equipment. What has saved Russia has been their mining of defensive positions, along with better use of their weaponry: drones and deadly glide bomba, although they continue to waste materiel on terroritst assaults on non-militart taargets. Ukraine has badly needed air power coming. So long as Ukraine's allies keep up their support, their can really only be one outcome ultimately. But Ukraine is fast developing its own weaponry alongside that.

[ToraToraTora]

There have always been conchie types that want to enjoy the state that is created and protected by others but do not want to play their part in its defence.

[ToraToraTora]

ich, Lord Scarper was there last week pledging to supply what is needed for as long as it's needed. I think you'll be ok from the UK anyway.

[ichkeria]

Indeed so Tora. Did you hear Lord Cameron's words to Zelensky?

"I had many disagreements with my friend Boris Johnson, who I've known for over forty years, but his support for Ukraine was one of the best things his government did!"

I know opinion is inevitably divided on Cameron as PM, but it'll be a huge boost to Ukraine to have a well known former international statesman fighting their corner.

[ynnafymmi]

@13.01.All of us on AB are also on the side of the Ukrainians,Ich.None so far has come out openly for the Russian warmongers.

[ichkeria]

"Ukraine now has multiple fortified bridgeheads including armoured vehicles across the Dnipro river in occupied Kherson. "

Great news ...

[fender62]

putin not unlike napoleon in the 21 century, will be remembered as a tyrant who single-handedly made russia a pariah state, blood and treasure..but not his.

[ynnafymmi]

Napoleon thought in 1812 that war against Russia would be a pushover.Hundreds of thousands of dead Frenchmen proved him wrong.Hitler in 1941 said that the war against Russia would be a six-week war,millions of dead Germans proved him wrong.Putin thought that his war against the Ukrainian people would be over by summer.Hundreds of dead Russians have proved him wrong.Dont these nationalist aerosoles ever stop to think?

[Khandro]

I know of just one anecdotally, the husband of a woman taken in by a friend of mine as an immigrant - & her chid & mother- when the war started. He joined her several months ago paying the Ukrainian border guard 5,000 Euros (straight into the guard's pocket of course) which is apparently the going rate.

[ichkeria]

Sounds about right. This sort of thing is inevitable.

It's Ukrainian Sergeants Day today btw 🇺🇦😃

[Untitled]

I would never blame anyone for fleeing war... I would do the same in all likelihood

easy for those of us who do not face conscription (especially those who are too old to ever be conscripted or live in safe countries) to pass judgement. 

20,000 does not strike me as a very large number... more worrying was the figure reported in time magazine that the average age of a ukranian soldier is 43 years... though i could not find the equivalent figure for russia

[ichkeria]

Strictly speaking, Ukraine has abolished conscription. Conscription doesn't really work if you are at war. It's "mobilisation". The restriction was on leaving the country, provided you did not have (I think) more than two kids. In the early days they had to turn people away. Hundreds of thousands of russians fled the country at the first mobilisation.

Ukraine has a couple of advantages over Russia when it comes to mobilisation: motivation, the fact that females figt in the army alongside males, which has not really been the case in russia up to now, and thirdly the Kremlin has restricted mobilisation largely to the poorer, more vulnerable, and in fact, less ethnically russian. And as well all know has bribed the worst offenders from its prison population, while ironically replacing them in the jails with anti war protesters.

[ichkeria]

So as a follow up, and bearing in mind what I said earlier, you do not have to go to the front or hold a gun to serve your country, and many don't. So while I accept it is human nature perhaps, it's not a very good human nature, and those people  should be ashamed.

If I was a russian on the other hand, fleeing makes complete sense.

[Khandro]

It has been said of Putin that he can could watch people being murdered in front of him without batting an eye - which is effectively what is happening. 

I think he's unfazed at the number of men going to their deaths, for no clear reason beyond his ego.

The problem is he has so many potential soldiers at his disposal, the total population of Russia being around 150 million and that of Ukraine now less than 40 million.

Unless someone takes out Putin, I fear for a long slog of attrition.