What will happen first?

[mountainboo]

Will the gulf stream stop completley plunging us into a new ice age, or will it continue to become hotter thus melting the polar ice cap and causing sea levels to rise greatly? Either way arent we due an ice age?

[jake-the-peg]

Nobody is exactly sure how much change will happen how fast - it may depend a lot on what we do but even then weather systems are highly susceptiple to tiny changes which can amplify quickly

I think that even the most pessimist predictions don't have the Gulf Stream shutting down for 100 years or more.

Even if the gulf stream were to shut down it wouldn't necessarily be an ice age, after all we are on a lattitude similar to Nova Scotia and that's not under Ice sheets - but it would get somewhat parky!


Sea level rise again may be difficult to be sure about, in the last 100 years it's globally only been about 20cm. The general feeling seems to be worldwide it's likely to be about a meter over the next 100 years.

The problem is that this could be much bigger extreme events, when tides and weather combine there is more water in the system to slosh about and get over sea walls. Bad but images of half of the UK being permanently submerged are a long way off.

I'm not sure why you equate rising sea levels with a new ice age though

[kwicky]

There was an answer to this in the 'Horizon' program recently. The gulf stream or conveyor follows a quadrilateral path and where the salt water meets up with fresh water from the artic, being heavier it sinks. If this water from the gulf stream is mixed with too much water from melting glaciers caused by global warming this process will stop and is almost irreversible.

[oglecorp]

but thankfully that won't happen because global warming doesn't exist. just use your common sense and think for yourselves. there are billions of tonnes of ice at the poles, and a few thousand melt each year. thats of the order of 0.001%. whats that going to do? exactly. nothing.