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[enarc]

what are the odds on a win on �20.000 invested

[dzug]

Yoiu can expect to win a small prize most months, on average. It's about 24000:1 on a �1 unit.

[dasherman]

You should win about 10 per year on average.

[rja211077]

er, no, let's be accurate here. you cannot expect to win 'most months'. the current 'specified number', which determines the number of prizes and hence the odds of winning a prize, is indeed 24000 exactly at the moment. so if you had over �24000 invested then in any given month, you are more likely to win a prize than not, so you could expect to win a prize 'most months' (more than 50% of months, on average). With �20k invested, you can expect to win a prize roughly 5 times per year on average (my probability isn't strong enough to confirm this exactly).

The current effective interest rate is 3.6% so you can expect to win �720 / year on average, tax free, assuming you do not reinvest your prizes. Of course there is no guarantee of winning anything, but you might win a million (or more!) in your first draw!

[dzug]

I think you are mistakenly doubling the odds against winning rja211077


If the odds are 24000 to one of winning aprize and you have 24000 units then on average you will win each month - not just have a 50% chance of doing so. The odds (again on average) are 1:1.

Or am I being over-simplistic?

[enarc]

thanks for all your remarks opinions are great help

[mack222]

Having held 30,000 for some years, its not cut and dried as it seems as to what you can expect in return, it very much depends on LUCK! and I aint lucky, about six or seven lots of 50's per year has been about average so far, I am now going to cash some in..

[enarc]

thats more like what i need to know.
thanks Mack222

[dasherman]

Just thought you'd like to know that I've won 4 times in the last 6 months and I only have 4,500 bonds!