No i wouldnt say guess work, it is an estimation for sure, as noone can be totally accurate (hense the 3-5 bit), but i think its arrived at by analysing energy given out by the sun and analysing the relative change over a long period of time in composition of the suns gasses (to see whats being burned up).
Pretty accurate figures are available as to the size of the sun, and also there are good ideas as to what the composition profile is... so its just a matter of working out how long it would take for the fuel to run out.... calculations that are beyond my grasp so i wont even try!