Given the clout that Harvey Weinstein has with the academy, and the uproar the film caused with it's alleged anti-semitism, it would seem unlikely. But I'm sure that they wouldn't allow anything as petty as politics to sway the oscar nominations!
its not actually a particulary good film, it was successfull more for its shock value than anything else. i will be very dissappionted if it even gets nominated not for political or religious reasons but because it its not that good. still it probably has more chance than catwoman.