ChatterBank1 min ago
Labour winning the election
What are the realistic chances of labour not winning the election?
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William Hill, the bookmakers, offer the following odds...Labour win 1/9, Conservative win 12/1 and Lib Dem win 150/1. In other words, Labour is nine to one on. Were this a horse-race, that would be considered a "nailed-on certainty". Of course, the British electorate is a fickle beast and we'll all know for sure in precisely four weeks.
I agree, I don't think my lot will win, but 12/1 does sound very tempting, particularly as there are a few things at the mo that couldn't've come at a worse time for labour with the election around the corner.
It does make me laugh though that Chas Kennedy is convinced they are in with a shout - although I guess, worryingly, they could hold the balance of power if there is a swing to the tories. I'd rather an outright Labour win than the Whigs having the balance!
I've read reports that Howard whipped Blair's arse in PMQ this week, but am I the only Tory that found all the up and down pantomine business is bit cringeworthy?
I think the will need to be something like a 10 % swing to the Tories from Labour from the 2001 results, so short of the PM being caught with his trousers down, I would say the chances of Labour not winning are tiny as they are still ahead, just, in the polls. Remember that the Tories could get a few % more of the vote and still lose by a long way. The bookies never get things like this wrong, so think about this at 9/1 on this means that you will make a 9% gain on your money if you gamble. No bank or building society will give you that so if you want to make a few quid, get all your spare (or borrowed!) cash on Labour and you'll see it rise by 9%. That should stand you in good stead if taxes go up!
Not very good...i don't think any party is going to get the 43% that the winning party normally gets..my hunch is that the two main parties will be very close in terms of popular vote both mid to late thirties..with labour winning a decisive majority in terms of seats...say between 40 and 100...but remember the saying events dear boy, it could change either way.
Being pedantic, the figures quoted by Quizmonster cannot be correct. If a bookmaker offered those prices he would be betting what is known as "overbroke", i.e. the punter could bet on all 3 and be guaranteed a profit. It maybe that those are the odds for an overall majority, in which case there is a 4th runner or possibility - No Overall Majority.
I must confess I didn't do the maths, Clayhead, but simply quoted the website I got the odds from. They do refer to an overall majority, as you suggest, and Hill's odds on a hung parliament are 13/2, so no question of overbroke...as if any individual bookie would ever make such a mistake! Click http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=4195 for a website with the figures. Cheers
Pretty slim! The Tories need a poll lead of 3% just to deny Labour a majority and would need a lead of a whopping 11% to win a majority of their own (assuming a constant Lib Dem vote and others) - that's just due to the distribution of seats. Perhaps they should support PR! Of course, the only way they could get PR enacted would be if they won a majority of their own, in which case they might find that First Past the Post wasn't so bad - rather like Labour flirted with PR in the 90s before deciding FPTP could deliver them a stonking majority on a few percentage point lead.
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