Labour winning the election

[Andy008]

What are the realistic chances of labour not winning the election?

[Quizmonster]

William Hill, the bookmakers, offer the following odds...Labour win 1/9, Conservative win 12/1 and Lib Dem win 150/1. In other words, Labour is nine to one on. Were this a horse-race, that would be considered a "nailed-on certainty". Of course, the British electorate is a fickle beast and we'll all know for sure in precisely four weeks.

[corganiser]

It'll depend on whether all the proportional representation junkies who use this site manage a peaceful revolution before May 5th.

[jake-the-peg]

Now now lets all play nicely :c)

I don't think the Tories will win but 12/1 sounds awfully tempting!

[Ducati]

I agree, I don't think my lot will win, but 12/1 does sound very tempting, particularly as there are a few things at the mo that couldn't've come at a worse time for labour with the election around the corner.

 

It does make me laugh though that Chas Kennedy is convinced they are in with a shout - although I guess, worryingly, they could hold the balance of power if there is a swing to the tories. I'd rather an outright Labour win than the Whigs having the balance!

 

I've read reports that Howard whipped Blair's arse in PMQ this week, but am I the only Tory that found all the up and down pantomine business is bit cringeworthy?

[elgroucho]

I think the will need to be something like a 10 % swing to the Tories from Labour from the 2001 results, so short of the PM being caught with his trousers down, I would say the chances of Labour not winning are tiny as they are still ahead, just, in the polls. Remember that the Tories could get a few % more of the vote and still lose by a long way. The bookies never get things like this wrong, so think about this at 9/1 on this means that you will make a 9% gain on your money if you gamble. No bank or building society will give you that so if you want to make a few quid, get all your spare (or borrowed!) cash on Labour and you'll see it rise by 9%. That should stand you in good stead if taxes go up!

[elgroucho]

And yes that should be an 11% rise, not 9%!

[Quizmonster]

The bookies just love "tempting" bets, folks! They'd simply be delighted for you to put your money where your keyboards are!

[Zen]

I was thinking of voting Zanu PF if there is a local candidate or sending my postal ballot to Birmingham labour party to fill in for me.

[luckyboy]

Not very good...i don't think any party is going to get the 43% that the winning party normally gets..my hunch is that the two main parties will be very close in terms of popular vote both mid to late thirties..with labour winning a decisive majority in terms of seats...say between 40 and 100...but remember the saying events dear boy, it could change either way.

[Clayhead]

Being pedantic, the figures quoted by Quizmonster cannot be correct. If a bookmaker offered those prices he would be betting what is known as "overbroke", i.e. the punter could bet on all 3 and be guaranteed a profit. It maybe that those are the odds for an overall majority, in which case there is a 4th runner or possibility - No Overall Majority.

[Quizmonster]

I must confess I didn't do the maths, Clayhead, but simply quoted the website I got the odds from. They do refer to an overall majority, as you suggest, and Hill's odds on a hung parliament are 13/2, so no question of overbroke...as if any individual bookie would ever make such a mistake! Click http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=4195 for a website with the figures. Cheers

[JohnPPotts]

Pretty slim! The Tories need a poll lead of 3% just to deny Labour a majority and would need a lead of a whopping 11% to win a majority of their own (assuming a constant Lib Dem vote and others) - that's just due to the distribution of seats. Perhaps they should support PR! Of course, the only way they could get PR enacted would be if they won a majority of their own, in which case they might find that First Past the Post wasn't so bad - rather like Labour flirted with PR in the 90s before deciding FPTP could deliver them a stonking majority on a few percentage point lead.