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Can anyone tell me how you could work out the whole population incidence of carriers based on the annual birth incidence (#) of a disorder in its full form?
eg for every child born with 2 defective genes, one will be clear and two will be carriers. There are, say, 800,000 people born each year ( x 70 years lifespan = 56 million population). If # is 1:10,000 then carriers are 2:10,000 or 160 per year. If # is 1:100,000 then carriers are 16 per year.
Or is there a geometric element of probability to complicate it?
This isn't my homework, by the way!
No best answer has yet been selected by ann_h. Once a best answer has been selected, it will be shown here.
For more on marking an answer as the "Best Answer", please visit our FAQ.Hi Ann
Your q is not very clear.
Incidence is, as you say, rate per year.
Prevalence is the flat how-many-there-are in a population at a certain time.
Arent you looking at the expansion of the Hardy Weinberg equation, p2 + 2pq + q2
if the prevalence of a disease is 1;400, (p2)
then the gene frequency is the square root of this, 1:20
Reading your question, I think this is what youa re getting at: I think youare asking if a disease has a frequency x what is the gene frequency, and the answer is the-square-root of x
For the reason given above.
I think I mis-used terminology.
I know that the likelihood of a two-carrier couple producing an affected child is 1:4, with 2:4 carriers and 1:4 unaffected. This is standard. In this particular case, an affected child will not be able to have children, as they will die or be too disabled, so only the 2-in-4 that are carriers will count in my calculation of prevalence.
I have only been able to establish a rate of birth per year of affected children, so I am assuming that carriers will be double that, but maybe I am wrong.
Basically, if the birthrate is (x) per year, what are the odds of one carrier meeting another?
Hi Ann, there is nothing wrong with what you wondering, it is just that you havent got the words straight. You have used birthrate in a sense no-one else does.
Take a rarish disease like CF, prevalence 1: 400. Gene frequency 1 in 20.
Chance of two carriers meeeting 1/20 times 1/20.....and we are back to 1 in 400
Your point about lethality is not a factor so long as the disease is rare. If a gene hangs around for along time, even thugh the disease is lethal then it is called a founder effect - but that is not really what you're talking about, either.
If X knows he is a carrier, then the chance of meeting Y who is a carrier is 1/20 - conditional probability
Take something really rare like Ellis van Crefeld, 1 in 160 000, then the gene frequency is 1.400, and the upshot is that we never see it.....although oddly enough EVC disease shows a founder effect in the desert dwelling aborigines of Western Oz - which it shouldnt and the reasons for which are not really known
Does any of this help?
Right then! Let's see if this is the right use of the words; then I can ask the question correctly!
Incidence = number/ratio of affected people born in any one year
Prevalence = number/ratio of affected people in the population as a whole
Gene frequency = number/ratio of people carrying the gene in the population as a whole
So, a gene frequency of 1:20 gives a prevalence of 1:400 by simple maths.
But, I only know the incidence (the annual number/ratio of births)
So what is the accepted principle by which gene frequency can be estimated from this?
(I didn't think it was the root as only a proportion of the population is of child-producing age, and they don't all have one baby every year)
Thanks for trying so hard, Peter, and sorry if I'm confusing you further!
Interesting about EVC, by the way.
The nice thing about AB is that one gets interested enough to ask someone who knows. One of my colleagues' wives is a geneticist, and I will ask.
The q is: If you know the incidence of a aut rec disease how can one estimate the gene frequency?
My suspicion is that you cant unless you know the number in the population and the average life span.
I tried this on a selection of my colleagues and they all came up with the first stab- square root of the incidence. They sort of agreed that you should nbeed the population, the average life span of the condition and the proportion of child bearing age -
gasp - the Lady who Knows, has been asked and we are breathlessly awaiting her answer!
This is what I came up with, wait to see if they agree!
Incidence 1:90,000 of affected, who all die before procreating
Assume carriers therefore 2:90,000 or 22 per million
In a city of 1,000,000 people there are 22 carriers, of whom about 1 in 10 are in your age group.
So there's just the two of you.
The Lady who Knows hasnt answered. perhaps she thinks it is all too easy.
Incidence 1:90,000 - that is the number born per year remember. All dead by 15 say, so 16:90000 is the prevalence.
gene frequency 4:300
so in a city of however mmnay it is - quite a few more.
NOW - The nice thing about AB is finding outthe answer and so I wandered into a book shop. Try halliburton - theory of population genetic or something. p 77.
Estimation of gene frquency using the der- daaaah - hardy Weinberg equilibrium.
Anyway why are you doing this?
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