Will Democracy in Iraq last?

[newtron]

I just read an article that predicted that Iraq will begin moving in the direction of fascism, and all their problems will be blamed on America.  Apparently, this will be due to their new government not living up to many Iraqi's expectations of improving their lives drastically in a short period of time.  What do you think? 

[brachiopod]

Will democracy last? I didn't realise it had even started.

[jno]

I don't know about fascism - many would say that was how it was under Saddam. But the government is having difficulty imposing order in the face of rebel bombings, which often target people seen as working for the regime, including policemen etc. Bush insists the Americans will stay until all is calm, but it's not clear if the US public will back him forever on this - it was domestic public opinion that eventually forced them to leave Vietnam. Bush is doing his best to play down the risks by sneaking US military corpses back into the country rather than having any public mourning, and by claiming not to know how many innocent Iraqis are dying.

What will happen if the insurrection continues for, say another year? Hard to say, but more authoritarian Iraqi government and some signs of panic in the White House seem quite possible.

[bernardo]

More likely to be some sort of Shi-ite Islamic fundamentalism, like in Iran.

[tartanwiz]

Saddam was a dictator, but that wasn't the problem as far as America were concerned. What the Americans didn't like about Saddam was that he was anti-American and nationalist, keeping U.S. corporations from moving into Iran, taking over the oil, setting up MacDonald's branches, etc. The Americans will quite happily support a pro-American dictator (and there will be one along shortly) who will turn Iran into a haven for the money-makers and a playground for the rich.