Hello I beleive I can answer this, I made sure to verify this answer in my college textbook The Western Experience by Mortimer Chambers among others editors.
I boils down to a risky "gamble" as Chambers put it. A great force of Naval vessels were in Pearl Harbor. Japan thought that with one attack, America could be "rendered harmless"(Chambers 1079). Japan saw a chance that was too tempting to pass up: without the American Pacific Fleet, America didn't have a chance, so they thought, in the Pacific. In hindsight, there are other possibilities they could have taken, maybe your scenario.
Russia had massive losses, however its Red Army was intact. Their "scorched earth" strategy left the German army rather hungry. (now as for your question)An attack by Japan would probably its death knell, but Japan would never have been able to catch the American Pacific Fleet undefended again. America would have had a much bigger force to operate with, and Japan would go on to fight a war with Russia; I think Japan calculated the odds and lost the dice roll.